Image is of the Galapagos Islands, sourced from here.


Moving the megathread topic slightly away from the chaos of the United States and going back around the world, we will begin with paying attention to Ecuador.

Ecuador has been ruled by Daniel Noboa since 2023, after he won the snap election. He’s about as ghoulish as one gets; a neoliberal right-winger and as much as a marionette to the United States as Milei. Two months ago, he gave effective control of the Galapagos Islands to the United States and is allowing them to build a military base there - beginning the potential conversion from a natural paradise to unsinkable aircraft carrier.

We are now seeing the rematch between Noboa and Gonzalez; the latter of which is a leftist politician with a similar ideology to Correa, the socialist who ruled Ecuador from 2007 to 2017. The divide in Ecuador today is largely between the Correaists and those who oppose them, though Leonidas Iza represents the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador and commands a notable share of the vote.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • MelaniaTrump [undecided]@hexbear.net
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    President Trump said on Monday that he could cut aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refused his demand to permanently take in most Palestinians from Gaza, substantially increasing the pressure on key allies in the region to back his audacious proposal to relocate the entire population of the territory in order to redevelop it.

    The president also said from the White House that if Hamas did not release all the remaining Israeli hostages by “12 o’clock on Saturday,” the cease-fire agreement with Israel should be canceled.

    “All hell is going to break out,” Mr. Trump said to reporters in the Oval Office, while acknowledging that the choice over ending the cease-fire ultimately fell to Israel.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/us/politics/trump-jordan-egypt-gaza-development.html

    Kinda wild that the Americans elected this guy all by themselves and he’s going to just destroy their own country over the next four years and no one else has to lift a finger - and they love him for it.. Like who would have guessed when Survivor aired in 2000 that a reality TV star would eventually unravel the whole place. It just blows my mind to watch this in real time.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      The president also said from the White House that if Hamas did not release all the remaining Israeli hostages by “12 o’clock on Saturday,” the cease-fire agreement with Israel should be canceled.

      “All hell is going to break out,” Mr. Trump said to reporters in the Oval Office, while acknowledging that the choice over ending the cease-fire ultimately fell to Israel.

      The first serious challenge to Trump’s madman diplomacy, where he threatens the opponent with overwhelming force if they don’t provide some concessions. Let’s see if this will work with Hamas, Israel, Qatar, Iran, etc. This is all about leverage here, Hamas is not going to give up all the remaining hostages, and thus all the leverage they have, until they get some guarantees with regards to phase 3 of the ceasefire, the rebuilding and governance of Gaza. Hamas wants to remain in a position where they have some leverage, and with Israel withdrawing from the Netzarim Corridor for the start of phase 2 of the ceasefire and giving that up, this is the only opportunity Hamas has to be in this position where they have this much sway, so they will make use of it. I just hope this doesn’t end up escalating to where Gaza is getting bombed again…

    • TheLastHero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      cut aid to Egypt

      This is not what the “realist zionists” want to hear. The US has essentially been paying Egypt off since the Camp David Accords to not fight isntrael and all the US interventions. Egypt has been #2 in US milliary aid for decades because at least they had enough sense to charge a high price for, let’s be honest, betraying the rest of the Arab world. But the Egyptian government sees that aid as payment for services rendered, not charity. Cutting that aid will only increase tensions between Egypt and the Zionist entity and could even provoke Egypt into searching for a new ally for its defense needs.

      Not to say Egypt would go to war over this though, they are way too reliant on US equipment to afford that (its like 85% American procurements). Despite that overreliance, Egypt is still not in a situation where they will rapidly collapse if the US ends military aid, so despite the high cost this isn’t as much leverage Trump probably thinks it is. Bush and Obama tried yanking on this chain during the Arab spring, when the Egyptian government was on much shakier ground, and Egyptians didn’t budge. Nothing came of it because those ghouls knew the US was getting to much out of the aid to cut it over trying to support a color revolution. So I really don’t see Egypt moving over this threat. If trump does actually cut the aid, then LMAO I’m sure China will be happy sell whatever Egypt needs replacements for.

  • Azarova [they/them]@hexbear.net
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    https://xcancel.com/MintPressNews/status/1889035808747016366#m

    Richard Medhurst arrested again, this time in Austria after literally being accused of being a member of Hamas.

    text

    Richard Medhurst arrested in Austria and accused of Hamas membership

    Last week, Austrian authorities detained journalist Richard Medhurst following a raid on his home and studio, where police seized all of his electronic devices. Medhurst is facing accusations of being a “member of Hamas” and charges under the terrorism act, which could result in a prison sentence of over 10 years.

    Medhurst emphasises that the terrorism charges are a direct result of his reporting on Palestine, particularly his coverage of the Israeli genocide in Gaza. Medhurst has also pointed to British influence, suggesting that pressure from the UK played a role in his arrest.

  • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    I’m just going to address the latest Israeli PsyOp that has hit the news media, primarily being spread by the German outlet Bild, and Turkish newspapers. This PsyOp being that Israel has obtained a GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb from the United States, and that they plan to use it against Iran’s hardened nuclear facilities.

    There are two problems with this idea. The first is the idea that the MOAB is a “bunker buster” bomb that can be used for this mission. The truth is that it’s not a bunker buster bomb, as the name states it’s an air blast bomb, it does not penetrate deeply into the ground before exploding, it actually detonates above the ground. The lightweight aluminium casing of the MOAB is not designed to penetrate anything either. So it cannot be used to strike against deep bunkers in the mountains, such as Iran’s nuclear facilities. There appears to be some confusion here, people confusing the huge overpressure effect that can occur when a MOAB is dropped in a valley or an open cave complex (as it was in Afghanistan) with bunker buster/penetrator capabilities.

    The second issue is the delivery method. The only way of delivering the MOAB is to fly a modified C-130 transport aircraft directly over the target, and drop it out of the back of the plane. Israel have C-130s, but flying one over Iran would be a suicide mission, it would be shot down instantly. So the MOAB would never reach Iran.

    The truth is also, that no such deal for a MOAB has occurred. I managed to track down the primary source of the misinformation that all these articles are quoting, and it’s a Fox News segment between Sean Hannity and Steve Witkoff, in which Witkoff says that Israel already has “bunker buster bombs”, likely referring to the 2000lb BLU-109. The MOAB is never even mentioned. These articles are completely fabricating and hallucinating something that was never even said.

    The bomb that Israel would need to strike Iranian hardened nuclear facilities is the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), which is only carried by the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber of the United States Air Force. The United States did use the B-2 and MOP combination in Yemen last year, in a clear warning to Iran. Israel will not get this capability, the United States reserves it for only itself. Which is how the power dynamics play out, meaning Israel cannot “go it alone” with air strikes against Iranian bunkers deep in the mountains. They would require the participation of the United States. Israel can “go it alone” in other ways against Iran as they have shown, but not in that specific capability.

    • Torenico [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      The second issue is the delivery method. The only way of delivering the MOAB is to fly a modified C-130 transport aircraft directly over the target, and drop it out of the back of the plane. Israel have C-130s, but flying one over Iran would be a suicide mission, it would be shot down instantly. So the MOAB would never reach Iran.

      Never actually knew the delivery of a MOAB is a fucking C-130, that’ll be an easy target in a conventional war imo. At least, this system against a conventional enemy is unreliable to say the least, like I can’t imagine one or a couple of slow C-130s trying to strike say a Russian grouping with a MOAB, they will never make it. This leads me to believe the MOAB was designed with COIN in mind, to be used against enemies that have little to no way of countering an air force’s operations.

      • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        The MOAB can trace its origins to the “Daisy Cutter” bombs that were used in Vietnam to clear sections of forests so that helicopters and/or paratroopers could land. It’s just a much bigger version of that. Modern day use seems to be for psychological impact against enemies that can’t effectively counter it. A weapon of intimidation and anti personnel weapon against large groupings of insurgents.

      • Crucible [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        to be used against enemies that have little to no way of countering an air force’s operations.

        Isn’t that basically all NATO nations strategy? ‘step one: establish air superiority, step two: ???, step three: profit’

      • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        Israeli PsyOps are just so pervasive, they even hit all lots of resistance media outlets. I still remember when the news megathread accurately predicted Israel’s attack on Iran (in terms of what Israel would hit and the tactics), then Israeli PsyOps started a few hours before their attack, which drove us all into a panic. It’s part of why I created this account, to try find the primary sources of information, post them, and analyse them ourselves, instead of relying on journalists and outlets which don’t know their arse from their elbow, are days behind on reporting, use AI LLMs for their research getting key information wrong in the process, etc.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      Also want to add the really depressing truth that if there is any future deal for sending a MOAB to Israel (none exists currently and I don’t expect any to materialise in future, but in the very rare case it happens), the target will not be Iran. It would be Gaza or southern Lebanon…

    • Hexboare [they/them]@hexbear.net
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      Surely Iran built their nuclear facility deeper than what they’d expect could be hit with conventional or nuclear weapons

      Next you’ll tell me the leader of Hamas is just strolling about Gaza

      • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        The MOP is not your ordinary bunker buster bomb, it’s a 30 000lb/14 000kg bomb that’s only 20% explosive by weight, consisting of just under 6000lbs of plastic bonded explosives. The casing is made of hardened metals like tungsten, and the bomb only explodes when it stops penetrating, or at a certain depth, depending on the fuse used. Early documents on the bomb’s design state that it can penetrate over 200ft/60m of reinforced concrete. And each B-2 Spirit stealth bomber carries two of them. No one really knows how far it can penetrate. Nasrallah’s bunker in Beirut was destroyed by 2000lb bunker buster bombs called the BLU-109, between 60-80 were dropped on the bunker and surrounding buildings. These bombs can penetrate up to 12ft/4m of reinforced concrete.

        This video shows the impact of a one of these BLU-109 2000lb bunker buster bombs, how it penetrates the earth before exploding. The MOP weighs 15 times more and can penetrate a depth 17 times deeper than the BLU-109.

        Twitter source

        Xcancel mirror

        Now imagine a crater 17 times deeper, that’s the penetration capabilities of the MOP…

  • Coolkidbozzy [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    so trump enacted 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum from ALL countries entering the US

    seems to mostly harm canada (and the US itself)

    data from USGS

    • xiaohongshu [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      We are fast approaching a new era when people no longer have to learn anything or to make any important decision when they can simply ask a word prediction black box what to do.

      Funny that so much of science fiction had predicted that humans created super sentient artificial intelligence being and got destroyed, when reality is much more farcical than that: humans start worshipping an autocomplete algorithm that sounded like a real human, and just like in the superstitious past when oracles were consulted, now we let a word prediction algorithm trained on internet garbage to rule our lives.

  • SexMachineStalin [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    Trump cutting USAID funding to South Africa has, unexpectedly, emboldened South Africa in it’s legal war against the Apartheid entity, with a combination of a collapsing international law, the end of Phase 1 fast approaching alongside the month of Ramadan and the relations between South Africa and the US at their worst in history, only short of American bombs being pointed towards Gauteng. Trumpet has also gifted isnotreal the infamous GBU-43 MOABs

    The main talking points over the last week has been Afriforum’s potentially treasonous calls for US “intervention” in South Africa, Trump’s segregationist rhetoric levied at the Post-Apartheid state and an actual emerging effort by South Africa to expel the US out of the UN, even taking considerations to work around the expected US veto.

    Primarily from Salaamedia and Newzroom Afrika

    redacted-1redacted-2 the Boer, redacted-1redacted-2 the settler

    • FuckyWucky [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      There might be a run from smaller banks to larger too big to fail ones. It’s difficult to tell.

      In third world countries, deposit insurance is much smaller or non-existant. Most people keep bulk of their savings in the larger banks.

      Even without FDIC, The Fed backstopped even non-bank institution debt in 2008. Will they still do that?

      • nasezero [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        The only things I am relatively certain of are that the Trump admin does not understand how the money printer works, and regardless of that they seem ideologically bent on dismantling any institution that doesn’t directly benefit them. I think they would sooner try to bail out only themselves (and close/loyal allies), and leave everyone else SoL. Even if the largest banks can weather a bank run, that’s still a lot of people that had their savings in smaller banks that suddenly can’t pay for food or shelter. Admittedly, I don’t understand enough about the Fed to understand what mechanisms, if any, they may have to prevent this.

        I’m struggling to imagine a scenario where shutting down the FDIC doesn’t lead to some form of rapid collapse, so obligatory nothing ever happens shrug-outta-hecks

  • thelastaxolotl [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    By Mondoweiss

    Hamas just announced a delay in releasing captives scheduled for next weekend, citing Israel’s obstruction of aid—blocking the entry of tents and rebuilding material into Gaza. Hamas says this obstruction is “a new war” on Gaza, escalating tensions amid the fragile ceasefire deal.

    An Israeli official denies these accusations but no official government statement yet. Israel’s war cabinet is set to meet tomorrow, meaning another day of uncertainty. Qatar has warned Israel that blocking humanitarian aid jeopardizes both the second and first phases of the ceasefire deal. The message is clear: aid entry is non-negotiable.

    Hamas is likely waiting for mediators to intervene, but ultimately, everything depends on Netanyahu’s real intentions—does he want the deal to collapse? Hamas’s announcement itself isn’t a breach of the deal. But if they fail to announce the names of captives to be released by Friday, that would be a breach.

    This move by Hamas could be an escalation to pressure mediators amid Trump’s recent comments about “owning” Gaza and expelling Palestinians. Meanwhile, Israeli war minister Yisrael Katz is calling Hamas’s move a breach and has ordered the army to prepare at maximum alert for “all scenarios.”

    Hamas’s bet is that mediators will resolve this before Friday, avoiding the need to take further action. Another Israeli official claims Hamas has been making these accusations for a while. But an Israeli delegation has now left for Doha—suggesting Hamas timed this move to push rebuilding aid to the top of the agenda.

    The core issue? Israel is blocking heavy machinery to remove rubble and reconstruction materials, worsening the humanitarian crisis from Israel’s genocide. Meanwhile, families of the captives have called on the Israeli government “not to take any measure that would jeopardize the ceasefire and hostage release deal.”

        • bbnh69420 [she/her, they/them]@hexbear.net
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          I expected Hamas to do what Lebanon have and not respond to the violations to release prisoners and briefly rebuild. Isn’t this pretty much how Israel does ceasefires, where they make up excuses to keep slaughtering?

          • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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            The ceasefire violations by Israel were the usual things that Israel does, like bombing people for not taking the correct routes back to their homes or not obeying the “fine print” of the ceasefire deal, or delaying the implementation until Israel wants to move forward and bombing until the last minute. I don’t think these Israeli ceasefire violations are the reason Hamas is no longer releasing hostages, that’s to be expected with Israel.

            The difference now with Gaza is that it is clear that there is no serious plan or offer from the United States, Israel, and/or the Arab states in the region to implement the third phase of the ceasefire, which is to do with the rebuilding and governance of Gaza once the hostage exchanges are completed. Without this, there is no reason for Hamas to abide by the ceasefire agreement and continue releasing hostages. If Hamas gives up the hostages while there is no actual plan for phase 3 of the ceasefire, Hamas is essentially giving up all of their leverage for nothing in return. The latest hostage exchange was the start of phase 2, with the IDF withdrawing from the Netzarim Corridor as a result. So Israel gave up this leverage (occupying the Netzarim Corridor) to get phase 2 underway. Hamas wants to remain the side with the most leverage here.

            Also it’s questionable how many Israeli hostages are still alive, what is their health condition, etc. The last three hostages that were released by Hamas (to start phase 2 of the ceasefire agreement) were visibly malnourished and underweight, in contrast to all the previously released hostages, who appeared healthy, with some even having gained weight. Gaza has been under genocidal conditions for 15 months now with Israeli bombings that have killed hostages and with minimal food and water. So another angle is that there simply aren’t that many Israeli hostages left that are alive or in good health, and most of the healthy and alive hostages have already been released. If Hamas releases the few remaining hostages now, they also lose all of their leverage, with no plan for phase 3 of the ceasefire in place.

  • volcel_olive_oil [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    local Swedish news has been covering THE BOATS and THE CABLES in the baltic sea for months now with a very predictable pattern of headlines

    boat discovered; seized on suspicion of cable sabotage; PUTIN’S SHADOW FLEET?

    a few days later

    boat released; no evidence of cable sabotage found; PUTIN’S SHADOW FLEET?

    send more boats please

  • Torenico [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    Last week I joked on how Musk took inspiration from milei now that he’s carrying out his crusade against whatever remains of the “New Deal”-ish State. And I can see similarities…

    I think “DOGE” is kinda inspired in Argentina’s “Ministry of Deregulation and Transformation of the State”, an all-powerfull shady institution led by someone who was not directly elected, who is a massive piece of shit, who can intervene anywhere and who has political experience working with previous (failed) administrations, always on the heavy neoliberal side of things. Naturally there are differences, the extent of the “reforms” are going to be different depending on each country given that the US is institutionally and demographically seventy two trillion times bigger than Argentina, so the process of dismantling the State of certain elements is going to be different and will have different effects.

    But the principle remains the same: A specific institution was created to spearhead all the efforts to scrap the State and for that task is given ridiculous powers to do so. Both are led by somewhat unelected officials with free reign over anything they desire, neither Elon Musk or Federico Sturzenegger (the guy in charge of the dismantling of the Argentinian State) have clear specific roles within their Governments, they are appointed at the will of their respective Presidents and their actions represent their own will.

    The goals are also the same but will have different impacts. In Argentina the goal is to end, once and for all, the massive privatization campaign that began in the 1970s, continued heavily in the 90s, suffered setbacks in the mid 2000s up to 2014 and resumed with various degrees of intensity after. The complete privatization of all “public” aspects of the State is to be carried out by this shady Ministry and they cannot be hold accountable. The same goes for “DOGE”: Eviscerate the Federal and “Public” institutions to pave the way for relentless privatization, whether that is education, transportation, infraestructure or energy, you name it.

    Whether this actually represents the end of both Argentina and the US as entities remains to be seen, in principle Capitalism at it’s core cannot reproduce itself for too long without the State intervening in certain areas, after all, a Ministry of Education is essential, and since both countries are intimatelly tied to Capitalism’s very existence, their own existence is therefore in jeopardy. However, perhaps, Capitalism is mutating into something truly hideous and new, it’s last mutation, perhaps being the "An"Cap one, before it finally succums once and for all.

    death to “israel” btw.

  • SexMachineStalin [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    Gestapo raided the Education Bookshop in Al-Quds, arresting it’s owners Ahmed and Mahmoud Muna, with their detention also just extended by 8 more days. The primary “evidence” to justify arrest is a colouring book from South Africa, titled From the River to the Sea. The cover includes the Al Aqsa Mosque, two variants of the Handala, one Palestinian, the other South African and a cityscape of Johannesburg with the Hillbrow Tower.

    This is also the very first arrest made directly as a result of possessing South African material.

    Cover of the colouring book in question:

    Death to ameriKKKa, Death to isnotreal

  • UnitedNations [it/its]@hexbear.netB
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    For this year’s observance of International Environment Day the United Nations is focusing on the plight of forests worldwide. In Haiti, there remains less than one percent tree cover. Most deforestation is caused by the local population’s need for land to farm, wood to build with, and charcoal to cook with. The result has left immense tracks of land bare to the elements, hastened massive soil erosion and increased land slides and flash flooding.
    View of a deforested hilltop near Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

    ©UN Photo/Logan Abassi, 2011-06-07