MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]

I looove Marmite!

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Cake day: September 19th, 2022

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  • Russia only has a few of these missiles’ and also the ‘US is going to reverse engineer it from the scraps at Yuzhmash’. Dnepropetrovsk has at least one Patriot system, which failed to intercept it.

    Might be true at this point in time that Russia only have a few operational Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) weapons, but they can easily make more, of Oreshnik and other types that we may not know about (Putin mentioned work on a whole arsenal of medium and intermediate range systems in his second speech).

    There’s no need for reverse engineering, the United States has envisioned and prototyped similar systems in the past, based off of MIRV capable Trident SLBMs and Minuteman III ICBMs. MIRV kinetic penetrators, and tungsten submunitions were suggested. Now the question is if the US would ever give Ukraine a CPS weapon, and in my opinion, I cannot see that happening at all. There is no way Ukraine is going to get given such a weapon by the United States.

    There’s no chance for the patriot system to intercept it as when the missile is in one piece, it’s flying above it’s engagement envelope. By the time the MIRVs are deployed, you’ve got 6 re entry vehicles travelling at Mach 10+, and once they deploy their submunitions, 36 munitions travelling at Mach 10+. It’s simply too much to intercept, too many projectiles moving too fast.

    He thinks the new missile is called Oreshnik because it looks like a hazel flower when it comes down.

    It absolutely does look like that, I see it now.




  • There was footage of what was likely a ballistic missile impact or interception, with a sonic boom, a visible projectile on a terminal trajectory, and resulting explosion. Pro Russia social media channels posted it as footage of “air defence systems working Kursk”. The larger question is if it was an ATACMS missile, a Ukraine made ballistic missile like Hrіm-2, or a missile from their Soviet stockpiles such as Tochka-U. Since both sides have certain interests, Ukraine in expanding the war as pointed out, it’s likely we will not know the answer to that question anytime soon. Russia could also have an interest in not admitting to it being a ATACMS strike, as committing to responding to every single attack could put Russia on an escalation trajectory that is undesirable, to say the least. You can also see this in how Russia says that their air defence systems shoot everything down, even when there is evidence to the contrary, done in an attempt to minimise escalation.







  • That is true, though they should be easily able to create and deploy one if required. The first candidate for a CPS weapon was actually a MIRV capable Trident SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile) with conventional warheads/kinetic energy penetrators, or tungsten submunitions. This idea was raised during the Bush Jr administration. This was eventually abandoned as it was theorised to appear too similar to a nuclear weapons launch. The Obama administration did prototype a CPS weapons system based on the MIRV capable Minuteman III ICBM in 2010 though, so the option for such a weapon is still on the table, even as the United States’ hypersonic weapons program, that was set to be the prime candidate for a CPS weapons system instead of ICBM and SLBM based systems, is in shambles.

    A constant conventional missile exchange between NATO and Russia easily has the ability to snowball into a nuclear conflict though…





  • In “positive” news, at least Oreshnik is not a nuclear weapon, so if Russia does decide to fire one into Europe, the nukes won’t start flying immediately. Russia has committed to giving advanced warnings for Oreshnik IRBM strikes, they say in order to minimise civilian casualties. I think it’s so an Oreshnik strike is not mistaken for a nuclear strike, when the missile is launched. CPS weapons change the escalation model and calculus in a potential NATO - Russia conflict.

    But yes, it does seem that the US, and certain NATO members in the UK and France, are determined to die on this hill, the rest of us be damned. They are prepared to directly participate in attacks against Russia while hiding behind Ukraine as a shield, and risk a potential nuclear war. It’s absolutely maddening and anxiety inducing.

    If the weapons start flying between Europe and Russia, I hope you make it to safety.





  • A post on Iran's ballistic missile test conducted on November 8th 2024. If you don't want to read this long post, just watch the cool video at the end to see for yourself how the missile works.

    From footage that was widely circulated on social media at the time, viewable on twitter, and xcancel, it can be concluded that Iran carried out a ballistic missile test at their Shahroud facilities, which were also hit by Israeli airstrikes during their attack on Iran in October, in which a missile casting building/warehouse was hit, which was responsible for manufacturing the casings for Iran’s solid fueled Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs). So the facility is still operational despite the damage from the airstrikes, viewable below.

    As for what missile was tested, there has been much speculation, including that of an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) test, even by Iranian member of parliament Ahmad Naderi, who also called for the testing of nuclear weapons. I doubt that, and rather think the test is being done in preparation for a future attack on Israel. As for what I believe was likely tested, my guess would be the Khorramshahr-4/Kheibar MRBM.

    So what is the Khorramshahr-4 MRBM? It is part of Iran’s more advanced Khoramshahr series of liquid fueled ballistic missiles, using a hypergolic (self igniting) propellant of unsymmetric dimethylhydrazine (UDMH) as the fuel, and dinitrogen tetroxide as the oxidiser. This is a significant improvement over the use of kerosene compounds as fuel, and nitric acid mixed with 27% dinitrogen tetroxide as the oxidiser, which Iran’s Scud derived designs used as propellant.

    The Khorramshahr-4 is a design that takes inspiration mainly from the Soviet R-27 Zyb Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), the North Korean Hwasong-10/BM-25 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) which is a North Korean version of the R-27 Zyb, and the North Korean Hwasong-12 IRBM. The story starts with Iran purchasing and modifying a Hwasong-10 IRBM for their own use, making the motor more fuel efficient, to allow for the use of a bigger warhead on the missile with smaller fuel tanks. The Khorramshahr-4 was unveiled in 2023, with a 1500kg warhead and 2000km maximum range. This is a fairly large warhead for an IRBM. However, there is speculation that with a lighter warhead, the range could be extended well past this, form anywhere between 3700-6000km. Tests of the Hwasong-12 IRBM have shown that a range of 4500km is possible. Iran could also be understating the range to keep relations with Europe and East Asia more amicable.

    So what are the positives of this weapon, when compared to the solid fueled Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan IRBMs with Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicles (MaRVs) Iran used in their attack on October 1st? The first advantage is the size of the warhead, with the Khorramshahr-4 warhead weighing three times as much as those used previously. With more explosive power, less accuracy is needed. This also enables the use of submunitions and cluster bombs in the warhead, which is a capability of the Khorramshahr-4 that Iran has already made public. The 4 meter tall warhead has plenty of space for that, as pictured below. This also means accuracy is less important, as you can hit a lot more, even if overall penetration and damage goes down. Think of it as a shotgun vs sniper rifle.

    As for another advantage, the guidance systems of the Khorramshahr-4 are said to be resistant to jamming. According to Iranian officials, it makes use of a mid course phase guidance correction system that operates when the missile is exoatmospheric, so it is not reliant on guidance in the terminal phase which can be jammed, such as GPS guidance. My guess on that one would be that the Khorramshahr-4 makes use of a celestial-inertial navigation system, similar to the Galileo system used in modern French SLBMs. This involves using a camera to pick up on the position of the stars, and correct errors with the gyroscopes in the Inertial system. Navigating using the stars. A lot of older SLBMs used this, as without a fixed launch point and no GPS, it was a good way to improve accuracy. The Khorramshahr-4 is derived from the R-27 Zyb SLBM after all.

    As for disadvantages, for one it’s a traditional ballistic missiles, and the re-entry vehicle/warhead is not fully maneuverable, there are no aerodynamic fins to change course. This makes such a weapon easier to intercept, even with its fast speed, of Mach 16 while exoatmospheric, and Mach 8 while in the atmosphere. It’s just a normal, parabolic ballistic trajectory. It won’t be able to perform the skip and glide trajectories that MaRV capable missiles can.

    Another disadvantage could be accuracy. The original R-27 Zyb SLBM did not need to be very accurate, it carried a 1 Megaton nuclear warhead, about 62 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. It had a mean error radius of over a mile/1.6km. However, this is a problem for the conventional explosive Khorramshahr-4, and Iran has made attempts to improve the accuracy, similar to the DPRK. They have mounted four veneer rocket motors to the rear of the re-entry vehicle/warhead, similar to the Hwasong-12, to help steer and guide the warhead and improve its accuracy. Here’s a video showing the operation of the veneer rocket motors. Seriously worth watching. While these can’t make full manouvers, they will allow for course correction. Iran claims a sub 30m mean error radius in testing. I doubt that, and think a 100m mean error radius would actually be very good under real world conditions. Iran’s attack on Nevatim had a 900m mean error radius, likely due to GNSS jamming and errors with the inertial guidance systems causing overshoots.

    Overall, the missile test, Ansarallah launching Palestine-2 missiles at targets in Negev desert to probe Israeli air defenses, and the speculated use of such weapons like the Khorramshahr-4, shows that Iran is testing the waters for a potential retaliatory strike against Israel. An attack with the intent to hit more targets than the last, while still remaining efficient, and without firing thousands of missiles.