I do think we are starting to see the dam break in France and Germany already. It’s true that they’re tilting right, but the parties that are gaining ground are the ones that are explicitly against the war. I expect that if either France or Germany came out against the war then the whole project Ukraine would collapse overnight because those are the two countries that really matter in EU.
True, if France and Germany bail it’s game over, but i don’t see it happening just yet. We’re not getting AfD any time soon in Germany, we’re getting CDU again, most likely either with FDP or even SPD again. I.e. more of the same. And as for France, the centrists have managed to successfully defraud the left of its electoral victory. In order to cling to power they will likely enter into an alliance with the nationalist right, but there is no reason to believe that LePen would behave any differently than a Meloni or a Wilders. These right wing “populists” are all talk during elections but when they get power they just bend the knee to NATO and the EU. The dam break has to happen eventually because the deterioration of material conditions will make it unavoidable, but i think the time frame we’re looking at is longer than some people hope. Not that it matters much because i think Russia is on track to completely collapse the Ukrainian front lines much sooner than that.
Thing is that once the US pulls out there’s little Europe can do in practical terms to keep the war going. The industry needed to produce weapons and ammunition at the scale they’re being used simply does not exist. On top of that, Europe is struggling with high energy prices and a severe economic downturn. The centrists might stay in power for a while longer, but all that’s going to do is further radicalize European public and cause a greater political upheaval down the road.
I can very much relate. When the war started, I expected things to develop a lot faster than they did. The big lesson for me was that everything happens a lot slower than you’d think it would. In a way it’s a testament to human ingenuity. People running Europe continue to find ways to kick the can down the road and cling to power. It won’t last forever, but they certainly surpassed my expectations.
While understanding underlying dynamics provides us with a powerful framework for comprehending how the system evolves, predicting precise details is effectively impossible. In this way, there is always room for uncertainty and surprise. A good analogy is to think of a river flowing downhill. The overarching principle is clear: gravity pulls the water downwards, carving a path of least resistance. Yet, the exact specifics of the river’s course, the meanders, the rapids, the waterfalls, are determined by a myriad of different factors, including the terrain, the volume of water, and even the weather. While we can anticipate that the river should flow in a particular direction, we cannot foresee the precise shape of its journey.
It definitely wouldn’t be a good thing, that’s for sure, as an immigrant i am acutely aware of that. I’m just saying whichever way you view that possibility, whether you think it would accelerate us even faster into open fascism (though it’s hard to argue that the current regime isn’t fascist when you see how they fund+arm literal Nazis, run cover for a genocide, and persecute journalists and activist groups who dare to go against the accepted narrative) or you think that they are a wild card who may shake things up and possibly do a U-turn on at least the most self-destructive Ukraine policies if not put up some resistance to the NATO-EU Atlanticist project (highly unlikely imo, at the end of the day the right wing’s “populism” is always fake and a cover for giving more money and power to capitalists), there is no reason quite yet to fearmonger/get your hopes up. What we will see is more of the same, more doubling down on sunk cost. The foot is stuck to the accelerator pedal and the car is heading straight for a cliff.
Yes and no. I think that comes down to how much America engages in a sunken-cost fallacy. Complete collapse of support in Europe would be bad for them, but for some reason in the back of my mind I’ve had the idea that America is preparing a giant “comfort package” in exchange for access to the Bosporus (full, not limited). I don’t think Turkey is opposed to “any side” specifically, rather more focused on it’s own affairs and the possibility of having it’s trade damaged.
Some guarantees, chunks of cash and a look in the other way in Syria (already happening but I mean carte blanche) I’m almost sure Turkey would “take a side”. With all the statements about “to the last ukrainian” from one soldier I’m wondering if America would really give up that easy if France and Germany pulled out regardless.
Turkey might be able to get some deals because they’re in a good bargaining position, but their relations with EU are increasingly cooling. So, I expect they’re just going to continue to play both sides between G7 and BRICS since they’re in a strategic geographic position.
With regards to US support for Ukraine, my expectation is that they now realize the project has run its course, and they are going to start focusing on West Asia and China. Europe will be left holding the bag on this. If dems won, then they probably would’ve stayed committed through 2025, but there’s very little chance Trump admin will be interested in doing that.
This is true. I just wonder if some sort of bidding war there will start. America starts throwing money and China starts offering infrastructure, an educated workforce, etc. Curious to see if Turkey will ever pick a side. I mean, they are in an amazing spot and I can imagine either side throwing the gauntlet down. Or maybe they’d just prefer Turkey in this position. Either or could work depending on what changes in the next year.
I could see that too. I could also see MIC ghouls convincing Trump to “step it down a bit” instead of completely abandoning it under the guise of “well there is still equipment left there and Biden did something similar in Afghanistan” and avoid active interference like the Biden administration and sitting on the periphery while Ukraine fights with what it has left.
America likes to do long-hauls even at complete expense of foreign and domestic opinion. So I’m genuinely curious if this war will actually end now or if it will just sputter out over time.
They definitely are gonna start focusing on China. With full Republican control I’m genuinely curious to see if they’re more or less gonna go full hawk considering the last administration.
I just wonder if some sort of bidding war there will start.
Unfortunately in that sort of scenario China does not have the upper hand. Of course it has one big advantage over the US which is its overwhelmingly superior productive capabilities, but the US has two things going for it:
Firstly they control the dollar and they can print as much of it as they need to bribe pretty much anyone. And sure without productive capacity all of that is just worthless paper but the problem is that China still accepts that worthless paper in exchange for its physically tangible and actually valuable goods.
And the second, which i think gets overlooked a lot in Marxist geopolitical analyses, is that the US ruling class is fanatical whereas China’s is pragmatic. Someone who is irrational and fanatical makes more mistakes but they also are also always going to be willing to stake more and go harder than someone who is being reasonable and cautious. This factor should not be underestimated.
For all the great things that can be said about the current Chinese leadership, which i do think still genuinely believes in socialism, the one thing they don’t have to the same extent as they did in the Mao era is revolutionary zeal; the willingness to take big risks, make any sacrifices necessary, and the confident belief - an almost religious-like faith if you will - that you are bound to win. This is something the USSR had during the Great Patriotic War, we can see it today in the Axis of Resistance, and we also see it in the liberal fanaticism of the western imperialists, but i just don’t see it in China. But idk maybe this is all bullshit and i’m just being idealistic here…
No you have a point. Reasonably, wouldn’t it make sense that China would be curious on investing/pushing more political influence onto Turkey/seek more control of trade into Europe where another major market is? Or are we analyzing this from the perspective of a capitalist country? Perhaps, China has no interest in pushing into new markets but rather developing and pushing their own. They might not have Maoist zeal, but they do a lot of work in Belt and Road and focus more on economic help to developing countries rather than trying to exert influence or control.
It might be the ‘pragmatic’ mindset in the sense that they seek development mainly in all fields. They aren’t interested in waging a war, or “winning” anything but rather developing the nation so it could compete in all fields in the future. More productive forces, more natural resources to tap into to serve the working class and nation, more research into fields of science to which we’ve seen the effects of what happens. They dominate science publications, they have plentiful resources in their own nation and they’re dominating the world in manufacturing.
Diplomatically; they offer a stable platform and more reason to their mindset than the constant carnival of elected officials that U.S parades around. I’m just surprised they haven’t targeted Turkey with any of their initiatives diplomatically; would be useful to put pressure on Europe during this time but I suppose not.
I don’t actually think the dollar matters all that much at this point. China is increasingly moving towards trade outside the dollar, and that trend will continue going forward. China is not stupid, and they understand that they’re the next target for US aggression. So, what they’re doing is quietly shifting their trade away from the west.
I also wouldn’t underestimate Chinese resolve, they understand that time is on their side and they want to avoid provoking a conflict as long as possible. However, that doesn’t mean they’re not prepared for it or that they’re not going to defend their interests when push comes to shove.
Finally, it’s important to note just how unstable all western states are now becoming internally. There are very serious economic problems across the west, and these problems will only increase as competition with BRICS ramps up. These problems are driving political unrest all across the west, and I think that will make it very difficult for western regimes. to pursue any sort of coherent geopolitical policy. In fact, we’re already starting to see infighting happening within Europe as well as between Europe and US.
Excellent points all around. Thanks! I love that we can always rely on you to give us the sobering big picture analysis whenever we get too in our heads about something.
I think Turkey might be forced to pick a side because the west traditionally can’t cope with countries being neutral. I expect Turkey will end up in BRICS in the end however.
Meanwhile, the US can try to step it down, but the reality is that the AFU is already collapsing with the current level of support. The US is basically the only country that’s actually capable of providing any meaningful support as well. If that starts drying up then the collapse will accelerate. Even with the current level of support, the real issue as even western media now admits is manpower. It doesn’t matter how many weapons make it to Ukraine if there’s nobody left to use them.
It’s very important to understand that Russia is fighting a war of attrition. The goal is to grind down the AFU until it implodes. There is nothing the west can do to stop that short of NATO putting boots on the ground. I can’t really see that happening.
My expectation is that the US will keep putting pressure on Turkey and they’re going to realize that either they bend the knee or they have to leave western orbit. The recent regime change attempt is likely what spurred Turkey to start considering BRICS as an alternative. It’s also worth noting that the economy in Turkey is not doing so hot, and BRICS has far more to offer than the west in that regard.
I do think we are starting to see the dam break in France and Germany already. It’s true that they’re tilting right, but the parties that are gaining ground are the ones that are explicitly against the war. I expect that if either France or Germany came out against the war then the whole project Ukraine would collapse overnight because those are the two countries that really matter in EU.
True, if France and Germany bail it’s game over, but i don’t see it happening just yet. We’re not getting AfD any time soon in Germany, we’re getting CDU again, most likely either with FDP or even SPD again. I.e. more of the same. And as for France, the centrists have managed to successfully defraud the left of its electoral victory. In order to cling to power they will likely enter into an alliance with the nationalist right, but there is no reason to believe that LePen would behave any differently than a Meloni or a Wilders. These right wing “populists” are all talk during elections but when they get power they just bend the knee to NATO and the EU. The dam break has to happen eventually because the deterioration of material conditions will make it unavoidable, but i think the time frame we’re looking at is longer than some people hope. Not that it matters much because i think Russia is on track to completely collapse the Ukrainian front lines much sooner than that.
Thing is that once the US pulls out there’s little Europe can do in practical terms to keep the war going. The industry needed to produce weapons and ammunition at the scale they’re being used simply does not exist. On top of that, Europe is struggling with high energy prices and a severe economic downturn. The centrists might stay in power for a while longer, but all that’s going to do is further radicalize European public and cause a greater political upheaval down the road.
Yeah, you’re right…i just get frustrated sometimes because i’m really really sick of these assholes. Can’t wait to see them gone.
I can very much relate. When the war started, I expected things to develop a lot faster than they did. The big lesson for me was that everything happens a lot slower than you’d think it would. In a way it’s a testament to human ingenuity. People running Europe continue to find ways to kick the can down the road and cling to power. It won’t last forever, but they certainly surpassed my expectations.
While understanding underlying dynamics provides us with a powerful framework for comprehending how the system evolves, predicting precise details is effectively impossible. In this way, there is always room for uncertainty and surprise. A good analogy is to think of a river flowing downhill. The overarching principle is clear: gravity pulls the water downwards, carving a path of least resistance. Yet, the exact specifics of the river’s course, the meanders, the rapids, the waterfalls, are determined by a myriad of different factors, including the terrain, the volume of water, and even the weather. While we can anticipate that the river should flow in a particular direction, we cannot foresee the precise shape of its journey.
You say that as if it’s even remotely a bad thing lol
It definitely wouldn’t be a good thing, that’s for sure, as an immigrant i am acutely aware of that. I’m just saying whichever way you view that possibility, whether you think it would accelerate us even faster into open fascism (though it’s hard to argue that the current regime isn’t fascist when you see how they fund+arm literal Nazis, run cover for a genocide, and persecute journalists and activist groups who dare to go against the accepted narrative) or you think that they are a wild card who may shake things up and possibly do a U-turn on at least the most self-destructive Ukraine policies if not put up some resistance to the NATO-EU Atlanticist project (highly unlikely imo, at the end of the day the right wing’s “populism” is always fake and a cover for giving more money and power to capitalists), there is no reason quite yet to fearmonger/get your hopes up. What we will see is more of the same, more doubling down on sunk cost. The foot is stuck to the accelerator pedal and the car is heading straight for a cliff.
Yes and no. I think that comes down to how much America engages in a sunken-cost fallacy. Complete collapse of support in Europe would be bad for them, but for some reason in the back of my mind I’ve had the idea that America is preparing a giant “comfort package” in exchange for access to the Bosporus (full, not limited). I don’t think Turkey is opposed to “any side” specifically, rather more focused on it’s own affairs and the possibility of having it’s trade damaged.
Some guarantees, chunks of cash and a look in the other way in Syria (already happening but I mean carte blanche) I’m almost sure Turkey would “take a side”. With all the statements about “to the last ukrainian” from one soldier I’m wondering if America would really give up that easy if France and Germany pulled out regardless.
Turkey might be able to get some deals because they’re in a good bargaining position, but their relations with EU are increasingly cooling. So, I expect they’re just going to continue to play both sides between G7 and BRICS since they’re in a strategic geographic position.
With regards to US support for Ukraine, my expectation is that they now realize the project has run its course, and they are going to start focusing on West Asia and China. Europe will be left holding the bag on this. If dems won, then they probably would’ve stayed committed through 2025, but there’s very little chance Trump admin will be interested in doing that.
This is true. I just wonder if some sort of bidding war there will start. America starts throwing money and China starts offering infrastructure, an educated workforce, etc. Curious to see if Turkey will ever pick a side. I mean, they are in an amazing spot and I can imagine either side throwing the gauntlet down. Or maybe they’d just prefer Turkey in this position. Either or could work depending on what changes in the next year.
I could see that too. I could also see MIC ghouls convincing Trump to “step it down a bit” instead of completely abandoning it under the guise of “well there is still equipment left there and Biden did something similar in Afghanistan” and avoid active interference like the Biden administration and sitting on the periphery while Ukraine fights with what it has left.
America likes to do long-hauls even at complete expense of foreign and domestic opinion. So I’m genuinely curious if this war will actually end now or if it will just sputter out over time.
They definitely are gonna start focusing on China. With full Republican control I’m genuinely curious to see if they’re more or less gonna go full hawk considering the last administration.
Unfortunately in that sort of scenario China does not have the upper hand. Of course it has one big advantage over the US which is its overwhelmingly superior productive capabilities, but the US has two things going for it:
Firstly they control the dollar and they can print as much of it as they need to bribe pretty much anyone. And sure without productive capacity all of that is just worthless paper but the problem is that China still accepts that worthless paper in exchange for its physically tangible and actually valuable goods.
And the second, which i think gets overlooked a lot in Marxist geopolitical analyses, is that the US ruling class is fanatical whereas China’s is pragmatic. Someone who is irrational and fanatical makes more mistakes but they also are also always going to be willing to stake more and go harder than someone who is being reasonable and cautious. This factor should not be underestimated.
For all the great things that can be said about the current Chinese leadership, which i do think still genuinely believes in socialism, the one thing they don’t have to the same extent as they did in the Mao era is revolutionary zeal; the willingness to take big risks, make any sacrifices necessary, and the confident belief - an almost religious-like faith if you will - that you are bound to win. This is something the USSR had during the Great Patriotic War, we can see it today in the Axis of Resistance, and we also see it in the liberal fanaticism of the western imperialists, but i just don’t see it in China. But idk maybe this is all bullshit and i’m just being idealistic here…
No you have a point. Reasonably, wouldn’t it make sense that China would be curious on investing/pushing more political influence onto Turkey/seek more control of trade into Europe where another major market is? Or are we analyzing this from the perspective of a capitalist country? Perhaps, China has no interest in pushing into new markets but rather developing and pushing their own. They might not have Maoist zeal, but they do a lot of work in Belt and Road and focus more on economic help to developing countries rather than trying to exert influence or control.
It might be the ‘pragmatic’ mindset in the sense that they seek development mainly in all fields. They aren’t interested in waging a war, or “winning” anything but rather developing the nation so it could compete in all fields in the future. More productive forces, more natural resources to tap into to serve the working class and nation, more research into fields of science to which we’ve seen the effects of what happens. They dominate science publications, they have plentiful resources in their own nation and they’re dominating the world in manufacturing.
Diplomatically; they offer a stable platform and more reason to their mindset than the constant carnival of elected officials that U.S parades around. I’m just surprised they haven’t targeted Turkey with any of their initiatives diplomatically; would be useful to put pressure on Europe during this time but I suppose not.
I don’t actually think the dollar matters all that much at this point. China is increasingly moving towards trade outside the dollar, and that trend will continue going forward. China is not stupid, and they understand that they’re the next target for US aggression. So, what they’re doing is quietly shifting their trade away from the west.
I also wouldn’t underestimate Chinese resolve, they understand that time is on their side and they want to avoid provoking a conflict as long as possible. However, that doesn’t mean they’re not prepared for it or that they’re not going to defend their interests when push comes to shove.
Finally, it’s important to note just how unstable all western states are now becoming internally. There are very serious economic problems across the west, and these problems will only increase as competition with BRICS ramps up. These problems are driving political unrest all across the west, and I think that will make it very difficult for western regimes. to pursue any sort of coherent geopolitical policy. In fact, we’re already starting to see infighting happening within Europe as well as between Europe and US.
Excellent points all around. Thanks! I love that we can always rely on you to give us the sobering big picture analysis whenever we get too in our heads about something.
o7
I think Turkey might be forced to pick a side because the west traditionally can’t cope with countries being neutral. I expect Turkey will end up in BRICS in the end however.
Meanwhile, the US can try to step it down, but the reality is that the AFU is already collapsing with the current level of support. The US is basically the only country that’s actually capable of providing any meaningful support as well. If that starts drying up then the collapse will accelerate. Even with the current level of support, the real issue as even western media now admits is manpower. It doesn’t matter how many weapons make it to Ukraine if there’s nobody left to use them.
It’s very important to understand that Russia is fighting a war of attrition. The goal is to grind down the AFU until it implodes. There is nothing the west can do to stop that short of NATO putting boots on the ground. I can’t really see that happening.
We have grazed the lathe; wasn’t fully right. Should have expected Zionazis on the bingo.
I’d like to believe that, but I don’t know enough to have an opinion on where they will land.
My expectation is that the US will keep putting pressure on Turkey and they’re going to realize that either they bend the knee or they have to leave western orbit. The recent regime change attempt is likely what spurred Turkey to start considering BRICS as an alternative. It’s also worth noting that the economy in Turkey is not doing so hot, and BRICS has far more to offer than the west in that regard.