True, if France and Germany bail it’s game over, but i don’t see it happening just yet. We’re not getting AfD any time soon in Germany, we’re getting CDU again, most likely either with FDP or even SPD again. I.e. more of the same. And as for France, the centrists have managed to successfully defraud the left of its electoral victory. In order to cling to power they will likely enter into an alliance with the nationalist right, but there is no reason to believe that LePen would behave any differently than a Meloni or a Wilders. These right wing “populists” are all talk during elections but when they get power they just bend the knee to NATO and the EU. The dam break has to happen eventually because the deterioration of material conditions will make it unavoidable, but i think the time frame we’re looking at is longer than some people hope. Not that it matters much because i think Russia is on track to completely collapse the Ukrainian front lines much sooner than that.
Thing is that once the US pulls out there’s little Europe can do in practical terms to keep the war going. The industry needed to produce weapons and ammunition at the scale they’re being used simply does not exist. On top of that, Europe is struggling with high energy prices and a severe economic downturn. The centrists might stay in power for a while longer, but all that’s going to do is further radicalize European public and cause a greater political upheaval down the road.
I can very much relate. When the war started, I expected things to develop a lot faster than they did. The big lesson for me was that everything happens a lot slower than you’d think it would. In a way it’s a testament to human ingenuity. People running Europe continue to find ways to kick the can down the road and cling to power. It won’t last forever, but they certainly surpassed my expectations.
While understanding underlying dynamics provides us with a powerful framework for comprehending how the system evolves, predicting precise details is effectively impossible. In this way, there is always room for uncertainty and surprise. A good analogy is to think of a river flowing downhill. The overarching principle is clear: gravity pulls the water downwards, carving a path of least resistance. Yet, the exact specifics of the river’s course, the meanders, the rapids, the waterfalls, are determined by a myriad of different factors, including the terrain, the volume of water, and even the weather. While we can anticipate that the river should flow in a particular direction, we cannot foresee the precise shape of its journey.
It definitely wouldn’t be a good thing, that’s for sure, as an immigrant i am acutely aware of that. I’m just saying whichever way you view that possibility, whether you think it would accelerate us even faster into open fascism (though it’s hard to argue that the current regime isn’t fascist when you see how they fund+arm literal Nazis, run cover for a genocide, and persecute journalists and activist groups who dare to go against the accepted narrative) or you think that they are a wild card who may shake things up and possibly do a U-turn on at least the most self-destructive Ukraine policies if not put up some resistance to the NATO-EU Atlanticist project (highly unlikely imo, at the end of the day the right wing’s “populism” is always fake and a cover for giving more money and power to capitalists), there is no reason quite yet to fearmonger/get your hopes up. What we will see is more of the same, more doubling down on sunk cost. The foot is stuck to the accelerator pedal and the car is heading straight for a cliff.
True, if France and Germany bail it’s game over, but i don’t see it happening just yet. We’re not getting AfD any time soon in Germany, we’re getting CDU again, most likely either with FDP or even SPD again. I.e. more of the same. And as for France, the centrists have managed to successfully defraud the left of its electoral victory. In order to cling to power they will likely enter into an alliance with the nationalist right, but there is no reason to believe that LePen would behave any differently than a Meloni or a Wilders. These right wing “populists” are all talk during elections but when they get power they just bend the knee to NATO and the EU. The dam break has to happen eventually because the deterioration of material conditions will make it unavoidable, but i think the time frame we’re looking at is longer than some people hope. Not that it matters much because i think Russia is on track to completely collapse the Ukrainian front lines much sooner than that.
Thing is that once the US pulls out there’s little Europe can do in practical terms to keep the war going. The industry needed to produce weapons and ammunition at the scale they’re being used simply does not exist. On top of that, Europe is struggling with high energy prices and a severe economic downturn. The centrists might stay in power for a while longer, but all that’s going to do is further radicalize European public and cause a greater political upheaval down the road.
Yeah, you’re right…i just get frustrated sometimes because i’m really really sick of these assholes. Can’t wait to see them gone.
I can very much relate. When the war started, I expected things to develop a lot faster than they did. The big lesson for me was that everything happens a lot slower than you’d think it would. In a way it’s a testament to human ingenuity. People running Europe continue to find ways to kick the can down the road and cling to power. It won’t last forever, but they certainly surpassed my expectations.
While understanding underlying dynamics provides us with a powerful framework for comprehending how the system evolves, predicting precise details is effectively impossible. In this way, there is always room for uncertainty and surprise. A good analogy is to think of a river flowing downhill. The overarching principle is clear: gravity pulls the water downwards, carving a path of least resistance. Yet, the exact specifics of the river’s course, the meanders, the rapids, the waterfalls, are determined by a myriad of different factors, including the terrain, the volume of water, and even the weather. While we can anticipate that the river should flow in a particular direction, we cannot foresee the precise shape of its journey.
You say that as if it’s even remotely a bad thing lol
It definitely wouldn’t be a good thing, that’s for sure, as an immigrant i am acutely aware of that. I’m just saying whichever way you view that possibility, whether you think it would accelerate us even faster into open fascism (though it’s hard to argue that the current regime isn’t fascist when you see how they fund+arm literal Nazis, run cover for a genocide, and persecute journalists and activist groups who dare to go against the accepted narrative) or you think that they are a wild card who may shake things up and possibly do a U-turn on at least the most self-destructive Ukraine policies if not put up some resistance to the NATO-EU Atlanticist project (highly unlikely imo, at the end of the day the right wing’s “populism” is always fake and a cover for giving more money and power to capitalists), there is no reason quite yet to fearmonger/get your hopes up. What we will see is more of the same, more doubling down on sunk cost. The foot is stuck to the accelerator pedal and the car is heading straight for a cliff.