Turkey might be able to get some deals because they’re in a good bargaining position, but their relations with EU are increasingly cooling. So, I expect they’re just going to continue to play both sides between G7 and BRICS since they’re in a strategic geographic position.
With regards to US support for Ukraine, my expectation is that they now realize the project has run its course, and they are going to start focusing on West Asia and China. Europe will be left holding the bag on this. If dems won, then they probably would’ve stayed committed through 2025, but there’s very little chance Trump admin will be interested in doing that.
This is true. I just wonder if some sort of bidding war there will start. America starts throwing money and China starts offering infrastructure, an educated workforce, etc. Curious to see if Turkey will ever pick a side. I mean, they are in an amazing spot and I can imagine either side throwing the gauntlet down. Or maybe they’d just prefer Turkey in this position. Either or could work depending on what changes in the next year.
I could see that too. I could also see MIC ghouls convincing Trump to “step it down a bit” instead of completely abandoning it under the guise of “well there is still equipment left there and Biden did something similar in Afghanistan” and avoid active interference like the Biden administration and sitting on the periphery while Ukraine fights with what it has left.
America likes to do long-hauls even at complete expense of foreign and domestic opinion. So I’m genuinely curious if this war will actually end now or if it will just sputter out over time.
They definitely are gonna start focusing on China. With full Republican control I’m genuinely curious to see if they’re more or less gonna go full hawk considering the last administration.
I just wonder if some sort of bidding war there will start.
Unfortunately in that sort of scenario China does not have the upper hand. Of course it has one big advantage over the US which is its overwhelmingly superior productive capabilities, but the US has two things going for it:
Firstly they control the dollar and they can print as much of it as they need to bribe pretty much anyone. And sure without productive capacity all of that is just worthless paper but the problem is that China still accepts that worthless paper in exchange for its physically tangible and actually valuable goods.
And the second, which i think gets overlooked a lot in Marxist geopolitical analyses, is that the US ruling class is fanatical whereas China’s is pragmatic. Someone who is irrational and fanatical makes more mistakes but they also are also always going to be willing to stake more and go harder than someone who is being reasonable and cautious. This factor should not be underestimated.
For all the great things that can be said about the current Chinese leadership, which i do think still genuinely believes in socialism, the one thing they don’t have to the same extent as they did in the Mao era is revolutionary zeal; the willingness to take big risks, make any sacrifices necessary, and the confident belief - an almost religious-like faith if you will - that you are bound to win. This is something the USSR had during the Great Patriotic War, we can see it today in the Axis of Resistance, and we also see it in the liberal fanaticism of the western imperialists, but i just don’t see it in China. But idk maybe this is all bullshit and i’m just being idealistic here…
No you have a point. Reasonably, wouldn’t it make sense that China would be curious on investing/pushing more political influence onto Turkey/seek more control of trade into Europe where another major market is? Or are we analyzing this from the perspective of a capitalist country? Perhaps, China has no interest in pushing into new markets but rather developing and pushing their own. They might not have Maoist zeal, but they do a lot of work in Belt and Road and focus more on economic help to developing countries rather than trying to exert influence or control.
It might be the ‘pragmatic’ mindset in the sense that they seek development mainly in all fields. They aren’t interested in waging a war, or “winning” anything but rather developing the nation so it could compete in all fields in the future. More productive forces, more natural resources to tap into to serve the working class and nation, more research into fields of science to which we’ve seen the effects of what happens. They dominate science publications, they have plentiful resources in their own nation and they’re dominating the world in manufacturing.
Diplomatically; they offer a stable platform and more reason to their mindset than the constant carnival of elected officials that U.S parades around. I’m just surprised they haven’t targeted Turkey with any of their initiatives diplomatically; would be useful to put pressure on Europe during this time but I suppose not.
I don’t actually think the dollar matters all that much at this point. China is increasingly moving towards trade outside the dollar, and that trend will continue going forward. China is not stupid, and they understand that they’re the next target for US aggression. So, what they’re doing is quietly shifting their trade away from the west.
I also wouldn’t underestimate Chinese resolve, they understand that time is on their side and they want to avoid provoking a conflict as long as possible. However, that doesn’t mean they’re not prepared for it or that they’re not going to defend their interests when push comes to shove.
Finally, it’s important to note just how unstable all western states are now becoming internally. There are very serious economic problems across the west, and these problems will only increase as competition with BRICS ramps up. These problems are driving political unrest all across the west, and I think that will make it very difficult for western regimes. to pursue any sort of coherent geopolitical policy. In fact, we’re already starting to see infighting happening within Europe as well as between Europe and US.
Excellent points all around. Thanks! I love that we can always rely on you to give us the sobering big picture analysis whenever we get too in our heads about something.
I think Turkey might be forced to pick a side because the west traditionally can’t cope with countries being neutral. I expect Turkey will end up in BRICS in the end however.
Meanwhile, the US can try to step it down, but the reality is that the AFU is already collapsing with the current level of support. The US is basically the only country that’s actually capable of providing any meaningful support as well. If that starts drying up then the collapse will accelerate. Even with the current level of support, the real issue as even western media now admits is manpower. It doesn’t matter how many weapons make it to Ukraine if there’s nobody left to use them.
It’s very important to understand that Russia is fighting a war of attrition. The goal is to grind down the AFU until it implodes. There is nothing the west can do to stop that short of NATO putting boots on the ground. I can’t really see that happening.
My expectation is that the US will keep putting pressure on Turkey and they’re going to realize that either they bend the knee or they have to leave western orbit. The recent regime change attempt is likely what spurred Turkey to start considering BRICS as an alternative. It’s also worth noting that the economy in Turkey is not doing so hot, and BRICS has far more to offer than the west in that regard.
Turkey might be able to get some deals because they’re in a good bargaining position, but their relations with EU are increasingly cooling. So, I expect they’re just going to continue to play both sides between G7 and BRICS since they’re in a strategic geographic position.
With regards to US support for Ukraine, my expectation is that they now realize the project has run its course, and they are going to start focusing on West Asia and China. Europe will be left holding the bag on this. If dems won, then they probably would’ve stayed committed through 2025, but there’s very little chance Trump admin will be interested in doing that.
This is true. I just wonder if some sort of bidding war there will start. America starts throwing money and China starts offering infrastructure, an educated workforce, etc. Curious to see if Turkey will ever pick a side. I mean, they are in an amazing spot and I can imagine either side throwing the gauntlet down. Or maybe they’d just prefer Turkey in this position. Either or could work depending on what changes in the next year.
I could see that too. I could also see MIC ghouls convincing Trump to “step it down a bit” instead of completely abandoning it under the guise of “well there is still equipment left there and Biden did something similar in Afghanistan” and avoid active interference like the Biden administration and sitting on the periphery while Ukraine fights with what it has left.
America likes to do long-hauls even at complete expense of foreign and domestic opinion. So I’m genuinely curious if this war will actually end now or if it will just sputter out over time.
They definitely are gonna start focusing on China. With full Republican control I’m genuinely curious to see if they’re more or less gonna go full hawk considering the last administration.
Unfortunately in that sort of scenario China does not have the upper hand. Of course it has one big advantage over the US which is its overwhelmingly superior productive capabilities, but the US has two things going for it:
Firstly they control the dollar and they can print as much of it as they need to bribe pretty much anyone. And sure without productive capacity all of that is just worthless paper but the problem is that China still accepts that worthless paper in exchange for its physically tangible and actually valuable goods.
And the second, which i think gets overlooked a lot in Marxist geopolitical analyses, is that the US ruling class is fanatical whereas China’s is pragmatic. Someone who is irrational and fanatical makes more mistakes but they also are also always going to be willing to stake more and go harder than someone who is being reasonable and cautious. This factor should not be underestimated.
For all the great things that can be said about the current Chinese leadership, which i do think still genuinely believes in socialism, the one thing they don’t have to the same extent as they did in the Mao era is revolutionary zeal; the willingness to take big risks, make any sacrifices necessary, and the confident belief - an almost religious-like faith if you will - that you are bound to win. This is something the USSR had during the Great Patriotic War, we can see it today in the Axis of Resistance, and we also see it in the liberal fanaticism of the western imperialists, but i just don’t see it in China. But idk maybe this is all bullshit and i’m just being idealistic here…
No you have a point. Reasonably, wouldn’t it make sense that China would be curious on investing/pushing more political influence onto Turkey/seek more control of trade into Europe where another major market is? Or are we analyzing this from the perspective of a capitalist country? Perhaps, China has no interest in pushing into new markets but rather developing and pushing their own. They might not have Maoist zeal, but they do a lot of work in Belt and Road and focus more on economic help to developing countries rather than trying to exert influence or control.
It might be the ‘pragmatic’ mindset in the sense that they seek development mainly in all fields. They aren’t interested in waging a war, or “winning” anything but rather developing the nation so it could compete in all fields in the future. More productive forces, more natural resources to tap into to serve the working class and nation, more research into fields of science to which we’ve seen the effects of what happens. They dominate science publications, they have plentiful resources in their own nation and they’re dominating the world in manufacturing.
Diplomatically; they offer a stable platform and more reason to their mindset than the constant carnival of elected officials that U.S parades around. I’m just surprised they haven’t targeted Turkey with any of their initiatives diplomatically; would be useful to put pressure on Europe during this time but I suppose not.
I don’t actually think the dollar matters all that much at this point. China is increasingly moving towards trade outside the dollar, and that trend will continue going forward. China is not stupid, and they understand that they’re the next target for US aggression. So, what they’re doing is quietly shifting their trade away from the west.
I also wouldn’t underestimate Chinese resolve, they understand that time is on their side and they want to avoid provoking a conflict as long as possible. However, that doesn’t mean they’re not prepared for it or that they’re not going to defend their interests when push comes to shove.
Finally, it’s important to note just how unstable all western states are now becoming internally. There are very serious economic problems across the west, and these problems will only increase as competition with BRICS ramps up. These problems are driving political unrest all across the west, and I think that will make it very difficult for western regimes. to pursue any sort of coherent geopolitical policy. In fact, we’re already starting to see infighting happening within Europe as well as between Europe and US.
Excellent points all around. Thanks! I love that we can always rely on you to give us the sobering big picture analysis whenever we get too in our heads about something.
o7
I think Turkey might be forced to pick a side because the west traditionally can’t cope with countries being neutral. I expect Turkey will end up in BRICS in the end however.
Meanwhile, the US can try to step it down, but the reality is that the AFU is already collapsing with the current level of support. The US is basically the only country that’s actually capable of providing any meaningful support as well. If that starts drying up then the collapse will accelerate. Even with the current level of support, the real issue as even western media now admits is manpower. It doesn’t matter how many weapons make it to Ukraine if there’s nobody left to use them.
It’s very important to understand that Russia is fighting a war of attrition. The goal is to grind down the AFU until it implodes. There is nothing the west can do to stop that short of NATO putting boots on the ground. I can’t really see that happening.
We have grazed the lathe; wasn’t fully right. Should have expected Zionazis on the bingo.
I’d like to believe that, but I don’t know enough to have an opinion on where they will land.
My expectation is that the US will keep putting pressure on Turkey and they’re going to realize that either they bend the knee or they have to leave western orbit. The recent regime change attempt is likely what spurred Turkey to start considering BRICS as an alternative. It’s also worth noting that the economy in Turkey is not doing so hot, and BRICS has far more to offer than the west in that regard.