Europeans need to reduce their dangerous dependence on an adversarial America

The implications for the rest of Europe are also alarming. Putin wants Nato troops removed from the whole of the former Soviet empire. European officials believe Trump is likely to agree to withdraw US troops from the Baltics and perhaps further west, leaving the EU vulnerable to a Russian army that Nato governments warn is preparing for a larger conflict beyond Ukraine.

https://archive.ph/f0vzo

  • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOPM
    12·
    4 days ago

    Europe’s looming loss of the US security umbrella exposes a web of existential vulnerabilities, none of which can be resolved quickly or painlessly. The sheer scale of rebuilding self-sufficiency is a decades-long overhaul with no guarantee of success.

    First problem is that Europe imports 60% of its energy, with natural gas prices already inflated by post-Ukraine war sanctions and the loss of Russian pipelines. Transitioning to domestic renewables or reviving nuclear power would require trillions in infrastructure investment into grids, storage, and reactors. As a concrete example, Germany’s Energiewende, launched in 2010, has only reduced fossil fuel use by 15%. Additionally, solar infrastructure relies on lithium and cobalt dominated by China. Without access to cheap energy, Europe faces either energy rationing or permanent deindustrialization as factories relocate to cheaper markets.

    Having outsourced its military-industrial capacity to the US, Europe now has to rebuild domestic arms production. Doing so requires massive investments in establishing supply chains and retooling of civilian sectors. However, decades of offshoring has eroded existing technical expertise in Europe. Just training a new generation of engineers and machinists could take a whole generation. Furthermore, creating self-sufficient supply chains is a difficult process with many steps, each step depending on the previous one. A single bottleneck, such as missing rare-earth refinery, can derail entire sectors for years.

    Another problem is that Europe lacks domestic access to steel, titanium, and rare earths, forcing further reliance on external suppliers like China. Even if Europe started today, it would take decades to see tangible results, and that’s assuming political unity holds.

    The EU member states disagree on everything from debt sharing to defense priorities. Eastern Europe demands immediate rearmament, Germany resists militarization, and France pushes for strategic autonomy. Meanwhile, nationalist parties are gaining ground, threatening to fragment the bloc further. Even if consensus emerged, funding this transition would require further cutting social programs, which is political suicide in countries already reeling from inflation and austerity.

    Europe’s security crisis is a slow-motion collapse. There are no shortcuts to untangling energy dependency, reviving industry, or forging supply chains. By the time Europe might achieve autonomy, economic and geopolitical forces might make the whole EU project obsolete. The US security guarantee was a crutch, and now Europe finds that it must learn to walk on its own.

    Some sources with the numbers:

  • Boomkop3@reddthat.com
    52·
    4 days ago

    Another one of those “repeat your opinion 50x and hope it is convincing” kinda articles, meh

  • AmoxtliEnglish
    31·
    4 days ago

    Trump does not like NATO. He sees the members as a bunch of freeloaders. Russian threat is a ploy for alarmism. There is no way this Russian military can takeover Europe based on the performance in Ukraine. The assumption is Putin wants an empire with no evidence to support it. If Trump wants to pull out of Europe, I would not be surprised, considering his distain.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOPM
      14·
      4 days ago

      The notion that Russia would militarily occupy Europe is indeed pure fantasy. However, what’s absolutely certain is that Russia will exploit the political chaos in Europe caused by collapsing living standards, a crisis Europe itself created. In a twist straight out of Greek tragedy, Europe’s fear of Russian domination has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. By cutting itself off from cheap Russian energy, Europe gutted its own economy, triggering a steep decline in living standards and leaving the neoliberal political center teetering on the edge.

      Now, nationalist parties are surging across the EU with RN in France and AfD in Germany are leading the charge. These two nations are the pillars of the EU, and if they turn inwards, the entire bloc will collapse. Meanwhile, countries that choose to normalize relations with Russia stands to reap immediate material benefits, making it all too easy for Russia to sway politics across Europe. There’s no need for Russia to physically invade Europe at this point.