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They’ll catch up over the next few months as we see a sharp decline in the value of the US dollar and Trump ending sanctions against them.
A couple people are saying things like that in this thread. Obviously not everyone is an economics expert. This really started crashing like 2 weeks ago, and they are very near a point of no return. What I’m saying is, they don’t have months. This is kind of already game over.
Tbh I don’t know shit about shit. I was just making a flippant prediction that’s more about America than Russia.
I figured. I was hijacking =]
Only if they actually get a peace deal. Otherwise Russia still has EU sanctions and a war going on.
Well, we can still track the “value” of the Ruble against the Euro.
Hasn’t the russian central bank closed all foreign currency transactions? That was what I understood (source Joe blogs).
Fun fact: The ruble is worth only slightly more then shitcoin, I predict that soon it will overtake the ruble
Maybe I should convert some freedom dollars to rubles and wait for the orange man to make them valuable again in the next few months…
Well this is the most wall st bets sort of thing I have seen on lemmy.
Why would you think anything will go up under orange man? The guy who is kinda famous for being an isolationist? The guy using tariffs to wage economic war on the USs closest allies?
I mean with the same sort of logic, buy South African Rands.
If you trade your USD for other currencies and the value of the dollar goes down against those currencies your get more dollars when you sell those other currencies for dollars. Thus this means that the value of the other currencies went up.
You get around 100 Rubles for every US dollar let’s say you buy 1000 Rubles with 10 dollars, if the value of the dollar goes to 50 Rubles (meaning the value of the Rubles went up) then you trade those 1000 Rubles back to dollars you’d get 20 US dollars.
I think they’re aware of how it works. Currency speculation is not complicated or new. The thing is, why would you expect the ruble to be a better investment than another currency? Why would you expect it to bounce back?
It’s a Wall Streets Bets thing because it’s very stupid gambling based on very poor logic. If you’re going to start speculating in currency, the ruble is probably not where you want to start right now.
Ha, and more on the same point russia just closed the ruble market. So no more trading in rubles and no more ruble values being released.
Should invest in Rands.
I think it is a good idea to help them to understand to use their language.
The rubles don’t go “up” but the dollar goes “down”.
That better matches their understanding of reality and it is irrelevant for what you try to communicate.
The “them” in the comment you replied to, I think it refers to the rubles, specifically relative to the original dollars.
Yes, it was not unclear.
Heeeeeey.
This is how folks get rich right here. Crazy ideas like this.
Well, that or they lose everything. Let me know if you do it so I can cheer you on.
That might be a viable strategy if those were the only two currencies. (But even then, the freedom dollars are still likely to stay in better shape - since the USA is not currently an international pariah or financing a failed invasion.)
Seems kind of a no-brainer if that’s what you actually believe is going to happen. It’s one thing to say one believes something but I’m way more convinced when they’re actually willing to bet money for it.
I don’t think you can just get Rubles with all the sanctions.
Fair point!
Yes, I expected to at least find a financial instrument tied to a USD - RUB value, like a CFD, but I couldn’t find any.
“put your money where your mouth is”
I tried that once; the taste was horrible!
What’s your horizon / timeline? If you can wait 20 years it may payoff handsomely. But who knows how the world is gonna go until then…
Assuming Russia even exists in 20 years…
It probably will, but it’s also probably a stupid thing to gamble on. There are safer bets.
What does it even matter if you can’t exchange it?
All imported goods will be more expensive. So, like, everything.
What does Russia import, and who outside of China and maybe India is importing stuff into Russia?
China and India have about a quarter of the worlds population and GDP…
Better question is what doesn’t it import.
Cars? Imported. Induatrial tools? Imported. Electronics? 100% of it is imported.
It has decent agriculture production, but all the tractors and factories for it are aging, cause maintenance got really expensive after the war because yes all that machinery was imported.
Oh and weapons. They do produce weapons.
Unfortunately most western brands still find their way to the russian market.
I had heard stories on brand sneakily dealing with Russia, so was wondering if this could be a way for the west to further destroy the Russian economy. Between Europe, Korea, and the US, if all brands caught importing into Russia from Jan 1st are banned from doing business in the west.
Alongside this, with added pressure/deal brokering with India and China, Russia could find itself with a broken economy beyond repair and few allies willing to prop it up.
The thing is, while everything is so starkly clear for us here, it’s not that black and white for other countries. So yes, India and China will become stronger business partners. And I think even if they will pressure Russia into bad deals, those deals will still be enough to keep Russia somewhat working economically. Whether this economy will be sustainable in the long run or do the country any good prosperity wise doesn’t matter. The top 1% couldn’t care less about how well the economy does. Do you think Putin or some oil oligarch really cares about inflation or whether millions of Russians can’t afford to buy food?
The problem is that the west cannot really go without sanctions, but everyone is fully aware that the rich and powerful have no problem overgoing them. The rich guys will always have access to Gucci. They keep becoming richer. And it is very difficult to impossible to get rid of this problem. While, for them, it is a minor inconvenience, it is a major catastrophe for the broad population. I think even if we tried something like going after the brands as you described (“ban them from doing business in the west if caught dealing in Russia”) they will still find a way to not get caught, blame someone else for being sold, pay a fine, continue business as usual in both hemispheres.
Having no McDonald’s and a Russian rip off is not the problem here. Believe me, people whine a bit, but they are resilient to these changes. You have to be resilient in Russia because for generations, everything went further south, the more you tried the more so. No one will start a revolution because they miss McDonald’s, Palmolive or Ferrero. You whine, accept, and life goes on, just a bit harder and shittier than it was before, again and again, there is no time to care more than that because you have to survive. You know you’re absolutely powerless and the best you can do is focus on your little life and make it as bearable and enjoy the little things before it gets worse again.
wait why do you care if Russians can buy Lululemon?
I do care a lot about that. Brands claiming they are pulling out of Russia because they got the moral high ground and/or sanctions just to sneak back in because they still can make additional profit in this market. Especially luxury brands. As long as you are rich, you won’t care about sanctions and risen prices. And again the poorest people who are already suffering and are completely powerless politically suffer the most, be it from inflation, drafting, or sanctions. So fuck all those brands for making sanctions even less useful than they are, for catering to the oligarchs who give a fuck about their country going to shit and people dying.
Okay, I get the abstract, “it feels wrong” thing, but what is the strategic value?
What do you mean? What is the strategic value of banning western luxury brands in russia, is that the question?
If the russian people cannot buy (or it gets really expensive) butter, and the elite cannot buy Porsches, there will be (more) civil unrest.
If the russians pay more for military stuff then thats good too.
They did manage to replace most of them with local analogues though. I wish it was the same in the Middle East, instead US and western brands are over represented. I don’t necessarily want it to be imposed on us, Russia was forcefully cut off, but I would appreciate if Western brands were less dominant and I do encourage boycotting them.
You can exchange it over the counter and it also matters in relation to other currencies.
uh oh
some truble
It happened in 2022 and bounced back to 2 cents in just weeks. Trump comes back in weeks, I can see things looking better for Russia with Trump’s presidency. I might be wrong, maybe the whole world is going to shit with Trump.
That is terRuble
The ruble is in trooble
That’s the official trading rate. The black market rate is 1 ruble for an empty snickers wrapper.
Reminds me of that bot I saw on one of the German speaking communities. Each time to say an ammount of money in Euro, it would then for example reply with “1 Euro, 2 DMark, 4 OstMark, 40 Ostmark auf dem Schwarzmarkt”. (“1 Euro used to be 2 German Mark, used to be 4 East German Mark, and 40 East German Mark on the black market”)
I thought it was yogurt tops. Damn you inflation!!!
Just a little bit lower and it will be cheaper than the toilet paper it’s made from, as it should be.
Is that more or less than the Roblox currency this time?
after a quick search, 1 robux = 0.0125 usd, so just over a cent.
Holy shit 115 rubles per dollar?
That’s like 0.0086 USD
Looks like BTC at this point haha
BTC was $95k when I checked a few hours ago.
Prepare for trouble !
And make it ruble!
well I’m glad I didn’t take action on my joke of “we should invest now while it’s at 10 cents!” at the start of the war lol
Sanctions in full effect.
I’m in tears
