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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • I mean I think an effective 60% increase in the cost of oil and gas for Trump is a lot more ruthless than some terrifs on luxury goods, which seems to be the current preferred option, as Amarican industry and Trump’s base is going to care a lot more about that than an slight decrease in Canadian sales.

    Moreover, if you halt exports altogether than US companies just substitutes alternate suppliers, export taxes by contrast are far more likely to result in Us companies paying the higher fee in hopes that things will return to normal soon, and thusly have more of an impact on prices in the US.



  • Given the sudden change in course after being instructed to cross behind the CRJ, the pilot likely misidentified the plane before the CRJ in the line that was just landing as one they were being instructed to watch out for, and because they were focused on the wrong plane didn’t pick out the right one directly in front of them against the city lights. Between the limited FOV of night vision goggles and the light they needed to see not moving at all from their perspective this seems more like a demonstration of the limits of see and avoid at night than gross negligence on the part of the pilot.

    All that being said, the helicopter appears to have been a hundred and fifty feet above the upper bond for that route, but when the routes only two hundred feet high to begin with you don’t exactly have very much in the way of a margin for error either way.




  • Counterpoint, I grew up in a smallish town in Idaho and was still absolutely surrounded by Democrats. State wide, only sixty percent of the voting age population actually turned out, and of those one out of every three people voted against Trump.

    Hell, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in some countries and again, this is fucking Idaho.

    This means that if you talk to an a Idahoan at random, there is a more than fifty percent chance they either largely already agree with you, or they are largely insulated from and not paying attention to politics and thusly susceptible to being swayed with the right approach and concrete examples of what Trumps doing to fuck them and their friends over specifically.

    Left wing ideas and policy are still far more popular among the general public, which is why Republicans have to lie about them constantly.

    Look for your local anarchist bookstore, look at what your counties Democrats actually organized, especially things like local pride events, show up, and network/make friends.

    As is fun to note, there are more Democrats living in Texas than New York state, so the idea you should just give up on finding any around you because you live in a red state instead of one where the numbers are reversed is honestly rather absurd.





  • Have human reflex’s been updated since the speed limits were set? The distance a car travels in the time it takes for you to see something like a pedestrian while driving, recognize it as a hazard, press the brake pedal, and then for the car itself to respond to your command and stop is one of the primary determinants of a safe speed.

    About the only thing on that front that’s changed since the 70s have been improved breaks, but that’s been largely balanced out by heavier vehicles so stopping distance hasn’t been radically improved.

    Higher speed still means longer stopping distances, longer distances between vehicles, wider minimum safe curves, shorter reaction times, more energetic collisions, and a larger gap between the speed limit and the maximum possible speed in rain, snow, and fog, which have remained nearly identical since the vehicles of the 50’s.

    Vehicle on vehicle collisions have gotten more survivable when things do go wrong, but surely we should rejoice that people are more likely to survive a trip rather than increasing speeds until just as many die as they did before? I mean personally I would much rather live to see my destination than save a few minutes.

    This also all just talking about highways, on all other streets and roads the six year old running out into the middle of the road has not gotten any more crashworthy than they were in the seventies, and slight reductions in speed have been proven to result in massive increases in pedestrian survivability.




  • It’s worth noting that this state of affairs is highly localized. Like my power company (Public Utility District) is run by the county government distributing power generated by a federal government organization(Bonneville Power Administration). Electricity is at sub 9c per kwh plus 52 dollars a month for a line. The BVA also somehow manages to keep its transmission lines trimmed despite a bunch of heavy forest.

    Not only is a better system possible, it has provided power to millions for nearly a century right here in America a few hours drive away. Cali could absolutely copy Washington’s homework, but that would involve actually undoing something Ragen did to benefit private industry at taxpayers expense and so Newsom isn’t exactly rushing to make it happen.







  • From my youtube understanding the 737-800 doesn’t have a RAT, instead using a battery system to power the DC bus, some controls, and minimal avionics. Also for some reason the FDR and CVR are powered only from the AC buses, and so would not have power in a two engine out scenario until the pilots manually started the APU and it came online. It also predates the requirement for said systems to have an independent backup battery.

    This means things are still consistent with a staggered double bird strike or with a single bird strike followed by the pilots shutting down the wrong engine as well as some of the more out there theory’s.

    Investigators might still be able to recover enough switch positions to figure out what happened in the air, but it’s going to be a hard investigation.

    The major takeaway and factor that turned this from a major incident into a catastrophic one however is still that putting the localizer on a concrete reinforced berm for typhoon resistance is a major safety hazard.


  • Yes, the article was generally pretty clear that energy is synonymous with electricity, which is why it’s core thesis that renewables fundamentally cannot replace fossil fuel energy is such a wild assertion.

    Yes we need to provide a decent quality of life, and that can be done with far less than north amarican standards of energy consumption, but the massive increase in energy consumption we’re seeing in India and China arn’t due to western levels of decadence, but rather the proliferation of things like air conditioning in places with fatal heat waves and the like.

    Indeed illustratively these places are known for their abundant, frequent, and highly used mass transit systems and walkable cities. Their energy demand is still growing at an significant pace, not shrinking. As given their sheer size these are the nations which have a far larger impact on climate change, these are the places where degrowth needs to have the largest impact.

    It’s also worth noting that even if you just want to apply degrowth to US cities in the method you suggested, well we know from examples like the Netherlands that it can be done and car centric cities converted into a place with just half of all residents own a car. We also know from that example that it took fifty years of dedicated government support and heavy local support to get that far. Meanwhile even L.A can take a decade and millions of dollars to not build a bus lane.

    To note the obvious, we don’t have 50 years to get the US to moderately decrease emissions, and when accounting for things like construction emissions the gains are pretty small when compared to say electrifying Amaricas railroads or steel foundries.

    This is not to say that things like walkable cities and such arn’t really nice things we should be doing, just that like many degrowth ideas they are both too slow to implement, to marginal an impact, and two specific to certain areas to really move the needle on weather we hit 2C, 2.5C, or 3C.

    This is all of course tangential to the topic we’re actually talking about, which is wether or not electrification and building renewables is pointless when it comes to fighting climate change because they are apparently incapable of ever replacing fossil fuels.