pretty much. we all grew up in the US being taught it’s a country of immigrants and the “bring me your weary your hungry your whatever masses to be free”
it’s actually kind of fascinating to see that ideology shift so fast it’s giving whiplash. turns out we actually kinda need these people for our economy otherwise we’ll end up like European countries with stagnating economies until we eventually get overrun by China
if you look at the numbers, Canada’s not that far from Australia. they’ve only instituted a tariff on like 10% of American imports
it’s very common in colonial societies like most of the Americas. without this type of law there wouldn’t be any American citizens. even before the 14th amendment we had birth right citizenship by common law precedence
you don’t just become friends with people to become friends. there needs to be some glue that brings you two together.
so for example back when you were in primary school, you had that glue- you took the same class as someone or rode home in the same bus, etc.
as an adult, if you want to make friends, you need to find some glue. it could be working together, or playing dungeons and dragons, or a deep appreciation of black and white cinema. who knows
so i will suggest one thing and it will only really work if you live in Florida. go to kava bars. just go with your laptop and hang out there drinking kava and doing your own thing. go every once in a while and you will meet people and make friends. it’s one of the few modern “3rd place” locations.
i got this spam too. i think it’s just someone who wants to grow some type of online community
i think fact that they feel comfortable sharing a picture with drug paraphernalia & spamming hundreds of people says all i need to know about the person
But they are mistaken. Europe is not giving in to that again.
how do you have so much faith? if you look at the Nazi elections it went something like
~2.5% ⇒ ~5% ⇒ 10% ⇒ 20% ⇒ 30something% ⇒ dictatorship
if you look at AfD it’s following s similar pattern and we’re currently at 20something%
Looking at past history, just one more successful election cycle and the far-right can consolidate and eliminate any democratic opposition
the current stance is fairly mild. Canada taxing something like 10% of American imports (which represents less than 1% of total American exports) when Trump is threatening 80% of all Canadian exports is not the aggressive retaliation the rhetoric would have you believe
Sometimes you have to fire customers
i knew a guy with a cleaning business. it grew to a fairly large size (roughly ~30 employees with an office and secretaries, etc) over the course of a few years, although about 80% of the revenue came from one client. he eventually lost that client and the business had to fire most of its staff. he had to sell two properties he owned to pay off debt he had accumulated- he was spending money at a rate that was not sustainable because he assumed that money would always come in at the same rate.
he ended up giving up and sold the business to a couple of outside guys. those guys hired a sales team and diversified the business and now it’s doing great- grew literally 10x bigger than it was under original owner. but it took years.
moral of the story? when all your eggs are in one basket, you are very vulnerable.
you also have to consider that America is not only a customer, but a vendor too. Tariffs placed on American imports will lead to more tariffs being placed on Canadian imports. You not only lose sales but a source of goods. i really think most people in this thread do not fully recognize the severity of Canada’s position
but frankly it will be political suicide
It will also be political suicide to trigger a historic recession. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I feel bad for the new banker PM. He’s essentially a political lamb to the slaughter. Trudeau is getting out at the right time- his legacy will remain intact.
What would you consider a sufficiently forceful response?
So far Canada has taxed something like 10% of American exports into Canada with threats to increase that if Trump does not remove the initial tariffs.
Trump is threatening to tax all Canadian exports into US. And 80% of Canadian exports go to the US.
To summarize: US put a tariff on roughly 80% of all Canadian exports (there’s nuance here, like a few exclusions and certain goods have lower tariffs like oil)
Canada retaliated by putting a tariff on a little less than 1% of all American exports
Canada has a knob they can twist that goes up all the way to 10~12% of American exports. They can’t go any higher than that.
They’ve decided to start very small, even though Trump is threatening virtually everything.
The risk is if you go too high, Trump may increase his tariffs from 25% to a higher number. Amplifying the economic pain and potentially triggering an immediate recession with millions of job losses and the collapse of various industries.
So what’s the correct number? How do you stand up to a bully but also avoid an economic crisis?
It’s a very dangerous game and I do not envy your new banker PM. That’s why Trudaeu was so happy when he was leaving with his chair lol.
Mexico is taking a more muted response. They are in an even worse position.
What are you taking issue with? I said sky is blue and you say “yes you’re right but the grass is green”.
Canadian trade with America- of which both imports and exports are counted, as you yourself stated- represents a value which is roughly 43% of Canadian GDP.
The US may suffer more than the 0.3% in an overall sense because of trade war with other countries, OK. But the impacts from these specific tariffs- the topic of the conversation- are expected to be -0.3% for US and -3% for Canada & Mexico.
I was pointing out 2 things
A) Canada (and Mexico) are relatively small economies that have become increasingly dependent on US trade and foreign investment.
B) Because of this, they are going to experience a much worse fallout from a trade war- about an order of magnitude.
Mexican & Canadian trade combined don’t even reach 4% of US GDP. They simply do not have the leverage to hurt the US in the same way US can hurt them.
Am I making the argument Trump is correct in this decision-making? No he’s a fascist who wants to hurt foreigners just as much as he wants to hurt Americans.
Am I making the argument America is going to be immune from trade wars? No, it’s gonna fuck all of us. And if we continue to escalate trade war with China and EU we will start seeing much worse effects.
4/5ths of a country’s exports do not get rerouted in 12 months.
i feel like the most likely outcome is that Canada (and Mexico) end up playing ball with Trump once he feels he did enough of whatever stupid PR stunt he needs to do and ameliorates a bit
Canada is not gonna get a better market for its goods than the largest economy in the world that speaks the same language and has had decades of integration. point blank isn’t happening
right now there’s a wave of nationalism sweeping canada (maybe that was trump’s goal- encourage populism) but reality sets in eventually and the banking class will do whatever they have to do to keep those economic indicators up
Also, in terms of numbers: about 25% of Canadian GDP is based on US trade
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12595 US-Canada trade amounts to $920B
Canadian GDP roughly $2.1T
Or roughly equivalent to ~40% of GDP depending on the year
This will be devastating for everyone, the US included.
it will be painful for US but whatever US feels, Canada & Mexico will feel 3x worse (and that number can go up 10x worse if they retaliate)
go to figure 1. us economy might slow ~0.3%. canada & mexico go into recession. -3% easy with retaliation
note the tariffs are stupid and reckless and cruel and i don’t support them at all. im just adding context because i did not realize how fucked Mexico & Canada were until I looked into it
sounds nice in theory but i don’t think people realize just how integrated their economy is to the US
entire industries are completely dependent on US trade. they traded large swathes of their economic autonomy away for easy access to the US market. prosperity was deemed more important than sovereignty
it’s a decision that was decades in the making and it will likely take decades to reverse.
and if we’re being honest it shouldn’t have exactly taken Trump to make Canada realize the US acts in its own interests. Look at NAFTA signed by Bill Clinton. We pressured Canada into accepting a deal that forced them to maintain a certain level of oil export to the US even if there were domestic shortages.
It’s not the type of agreement equal parties or allies come to. It’s a relationship of domination. Always has been
i say be polite. you don’t have to be super friendly or anything
being a “homewrecker” is bad, but sometimes there’s more context you don’t know about. i tend to give people the benefit of doubt and give them an opportunity to show who they are before I make assumptions.
i do this because in the past i have judged too quickly and been wrong about people- in both directions
American trade is nearly worth half of Canada’s total GDP. something like 75~80% of total Canadian exports go to the US. if they actually retaliate in force they could be dooming their country to an economic crisis if Trump is spiteful enough. so far the Canadian tariffs have only touched about $30B worth of goods, or 7% of the total trade.
What do you think it’s platform should be?
If the name was “Tax the Rich” then I would assume the platform should be a tax on the rich. Either land or capital gains. I think increasing income tax on the rich is meaningless.
Would it need a social agenda?
I don’t think so. In our polarized environment, any social agenda you set will turn someone off. If this party were to succeed, theoretically, it would have to get elements from both the right and the left. And there are many on the right who are anti-establishment and upset with the current economic situation. I feel like if you put other issues like “pro-abortion” or what have you, you will dramatically shrink your base.
What conditions would be necessary for you to vote for it?
I would realistically never vote for a third party unless it had some serious momentum. For example during the 1912 election cycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1912_United_States_presidential_election
I would have voted for a third party. Teddy Roosevelt got 27% of the vote and he ran as a “Progressive” party candidate. Eugene Debbs got 6% (almost 1 million votes) as a candidate of the “Socialist” party.
But really, these elections are like once in a century type of event. Where a 3rd party actually has a chance in hell of winning.
But for reference with Eugene Debbs… 1 million votes in 1921 is like 3.2 million votes today. For reference the Green party got like 800k votes in 2024
Reddit may actually be doing a lot of people a big favor.
Today Trump’s DHS went out and arrested a Palestinian student at Columbia for participating at a protest a year prior. Our federal agents are becoming like the KGB- hunting down political dissidents.
I believe that is just a start. I think people would be wise to be careful about the things they post online. If you do post content you believe the administration may not like, I suggest making an anonymous account with an email not linked to your personal name.
I have a hunch that people will be arrested in the near future for posting things online.
Just in case it isn’t clear I don’t support Trump nor the tariffs.
I voted against Trump and I hate him with a vengeance. I’m discussing the geopolitical and economic context of the tariffs and the dynamic between US and Canada. I was surprised when I started doing research about this recently just how reliant in the US Canada truly is. The numbers were shocking to me. Likewise with Mexico. For some reasons the news doesn’t really cover these details.
There really is no world where the US is not Canada’s largest trade partner. It doesn’t matter what government is in power. No amount if federal unemployment would cover a quarter of your economy vanishing overnight.
And on the topic of a united Canada- https://www160.statcan.gc.ca/good-governance-saine-gouvernance/institutions-eng.htm
Public faith in federal institutions is at an all time low… just like the US. Right wing populism is on the rise… just like the US. Canada is a lot closer to the US both culturally and politically than any European country. This should be intuitive- both are cut from the same cloth. British settler colonial societies.
And Canada is starting to fall victim to the same style of right-wing populism we are seeing in the US (Trump), Latin America (Brazil/Bolsonaro, Argentina/Milei), and Europe (UK/Brexit, Germany/AfD, Italy/FdI, France/Le Penn, Sweden/Dems) etc.
Don’t let some vague sense of national pride blind you from seeing the truth for what it is. Confront the truth head on even if it is uncomfortable.
All countries are sovereign but some countries are more sovereign than others. If Canada’s priority was protecting sovereignty then they would not be in this position to begin with.
It’s something that has been decades in the making. It will take decades to reverse course. It isn’t going to meaningfully change in the upcoming 5-10 years.
You say Canadians are ready to “go without” but we’re talking about millions of people losing their jobs. A historic spike in poverty. Collapse of many industries. No sane leadership would ever cut off trade with America. National pride doesn’t feed a family.
Long term, sure, maybe there will be a realignment. I doubt it, but it’s possible. The near future is a chaotic one where Canada and Mexico are going to need the economic value from America. We’re headed for troubled times globally.
Yes, they are. There will be no meaningful response because they have no leverage. Any meaningful change from status quo would mean an immediate economic crisis.
Ignore what they say on camera because they are speaking to their domestic audience.
Right now, Canada has placed a 25% tariff on $30B worth of imports. That’s 7% of US imports. Whereas Trump has placed 25% on everything that Canada exports to the US.
And 80% of Canadian exports go directly to the US.
So just for reference.
Canada retaliatory tariff -> $30B which represents less than 1% of total US exports
Trump’s tariffs -> ~$550B which represents nearly 80% of total Canadian exports
Ignore the rhetoric, look at the numbers. Canada and Mexico have no choice. They signed their economic autonomy away a long time ago. It’s sort of like when Greece went through their debt crisis and couldn’t do jack shit because they signed away their autonomy to Brussels (and really Germany).
There are trade-offs to every decision. Canada got easy access to the American market and a nice way to exploit their natural resources. But it also gives Washington an absurd amount of leverage over them.
Mexico is even more screwed.
I wasnt aware new ones from yesterday. It was for $30B, though. Combined with the last set of tariffs its $60B total out of $350B of US exports to Canada
So about 17%. So let’s say Canads is at a conservative 3 generous 4