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Joined 3 months ago
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Cake day: August 14th, 2024

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  • I’m pretty Liberal but:

    Republicans lack a clear mandate

    Is utter bullshit. Republicans were handed very clear victories. Narrow, but clear. All western democracies sent a clear message, the current state of affairs is not good. Every western NATO country that had elections unseated the incumbent government.

    Trump’s plans for deportations, ending birthright citizenship, political retribution, and tariffs

    This is Trump’s fluff that the powers that be will entertain until they hold up more pressing priorities for the Republican party. My take on each one is:

    • Deportations — That’s going to happen. They’ve played the blame game too long on it. But it’s likely that the admin will find it’s Elian Gonzalez moment, wave that as victory and then put the whole thing in the rear view. As “the worse case” has serious economic effects that won’t fly high among the others in the party without some Congressional stomach for expanded H-2A, which detracts from more pressing concerns for them.
    • Ending birthright citizenship — That’s not happening. It is stupid that we’re even talking about this. Denaturalization, maybe, but nixing the 14th Amendment? No. The momentum isn’t there, people have bigger fish to fry.
    • Political Retribution — The people he’s targeting aren’t idiots and have access to a wide variety of legal counsel. Trump’s under the impression that it’ll cause them the same amount of headache he had in 2021 to 2024, but the reality is Trump picks shitty lawyers because only shitty lawyers want to represent Trump. Trump routinely doesn’t pay people and that’s made his legal issues magnify by 10,000 fold. Everyone else doesn’t have nearly the same headaches Trump has with legal affairs and it’s mostly because Trump stiffs people. Other people actually pay their lawyers.
    • Tariffs — I mean it’s likely to happen. It’ll be a FAFO moment for Trump for sure. But if it gets out of hand, his party might be able to reach concessions with Democrats to end any declaration of an emergency Trump tries to use to authorize the tariffs without Congress. It’s going to suck, and I will absolutely enjoy the schadenfreude that comes from it but not really enjoy the jacked up prices of things, but I mean things suck as is. So if it get twice as bad as it is now, I’ll only care about half as much as I do now. We all just refuse to address the crux of the issues with inflation so we’ll just keep on, keeping on. All of us are too busy blaming political people for inflation to really solve the issue, so maybe in another ten years or so everyone will finally chill the fuck out and we can work on the actual issues. But I’m not holding out hope.

    There’s likely to be backlash as voters realize the gap between what they wanted and what Trump plans to deliver.

    That’s almost a given. It’s one of the reasons Republicans are trying to get their ducks in a row for the 119th Congress. But with the narrow majority in the House, it will only take one or two asshats from the Freedom Caucus to fuck it up. And I absolutely feel that they’re going to do their usual asshattery at least once during the session. Mike Johnson isn’t some visionary, he does well to plan his lunch for the day. With all the to-dos the GOP has, it’s going to run into the too much water going down a narrow drain issue.

    It’s one of the reasons the transition team is trying to break things out into sole EO, requiring law, and direction. It’s also the reason Trump doesn’t want to deal with the 300 day window on his appointments. He wants them hitting the road right away. People want to think Trump wants recess to avoid hearings. Trump just wants recess appointments so that they can get to work on day one, avoiding the hearings is a nice bonus. They have a lot of things they want to get through and it only goes so fast and they’re pretty much betting on midterms being hard to them.

    But all that said, THIS:

    Republicans lack a clear mandate

    Is utter trash. They swept the fucking floor. Us Democrats need to take the L, look around, and figure a path for midterms to make a wide enough push in both chambers. But it ain’t going to happen just running around and yelling “TRUMP BAD! TRUMP BAD!” Democrats need to provide a clear policy agenda that is easy to articulate.



  • Javier Milei’s plan to privatize the Paraguay-Paraná waterway

    maniacal laughter GODDAMN! Woo! That fucking Libertarian paradise comes at you fast. Man, Milei is in over his fucking head and the depth of it is slowly dawning on him at about the pace 80 year-olds fuck. All those experts are gone and my boy here is fucking treading water in a slow panic seeing the picnic he’s planned in the hurricane.

    potentially benefiting multinational businesses at the expense of the local population.

    Oh no, that’s exactly what it’s out to do. Milei is looking for capital injection after his nose dive on inflation. Like all of the austerity, Milei has successfully slowed inflation down drastically, but has done so by basically bringing his country’s economy to a damn near halt. That’s the easy part. You stop putting any kind of investment into the public, they hold onto their money longer, economy slows and inflation basically flat lines.

    The trick is that once you’ve got the economy this cold and all the fluidity has almost frozen completely, you warm it back up and try to control the thing to prevent another run away inflation. That’s the difficult part, because your people have to trust you to play their part and not be scared they’ll watch their dollars buy less and less again. And you’ve got to warm it up, because if it completely freezes, then you leave recession and enter depression where money enters a glacial pace of movement.

    The thing I find funny is that the Libertarian paradise puts all the trust completely into the hands of the public. Which given how cold Milei has made his economy, is either the most insane or genius thing ever. But then he does this and, “AH, he wasn’t going to trust them after all.” He’s going to wheel and deal and see where it lands. Problem is that the folks with money know the position he’s put himself into. The cards are stacked in the favor of the rich people who Milei wants to invest in his country and boy are they going to play their hand.

    Hornsby sang a song about it. “That’s just the way it is. Some things will never change. That’s just the way it is. Ah, but don’t you believe them.” Man people are hungry to think this shit ain’t going to play out the same way it always does. It amazing the lengths folks go to thinking that. It’s shit like this that makes me think hope is one of those bad four letter words.



  • Not surprising as some will likely think this is. McMahon ran the SBA from 2017 to 2019.

    Additionally, she served as a member of the Connecticut State Board of Education for about a year until a legal opinion was given that she couldn’t solicit for campaign money, which apparently using your position to solicit for bribes er donations was just a bridge too far for her.

    She’s also a chair for A1P a SuperPAC that unsurprisingly gave heavily to Trump in the 2024 elections.

    That said, she’s absolutely getting the position as a reward and so that she can wet her beak. I would say she has zero morals or ethics, but I think that’s putting way too positive a spin what she’s likely going to do while in office.


  • The Administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) handles:

    • Medicare
    • Medicaid
    • the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP)
    • the Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance Marketplaces

    They are also in charge of:

    • Setting the health insurance portability standards for the United States
    • The administrative end of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)
    • Setting the Federal quality standards in long-term care (nursing homes)
    • Clinical laboratory quality standards under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) of 1988

    So it’s not just Medicare and Medicaid, but millions of people within the ACA and including seven million children in CHIPs that he’ll be overseeing. Not to mention setting the standards of care for millions of people in nursing homes.






  • The postrat folk. The deep value Silicon Valley folk. Core Techbro kind of people.

    Would have thought they’d be prone to sticking with Musk

    Ditto, but at the same time. Being with daddy Musk might be too traditional at this point. No idea the reasons, but you can to see a lot of this popping up in that circle on Twitter.

    TPOT → Bluesky is actually an interesting example of what looks like a successful transplantation… quasi-existential concerns about Elon Twitter, vibes have been off leading to big cascades of migration tend to happen after inciting incidents (eg twitter banning substack links being a canary in the coal mine)

    You know the “I sound super thoughtful” kind of stuff. Lots of praise from that Group on XTwitter/Bluesky.



  • That’s not the victory Republicans will think it is.

    The House Freedom caucus routinely has at least one or two who dig their heels in over “this bill doesn’t go FAR enough!”

    With a 218 majority, that means 100% of the Republicans have to toe the line. Not a single person can be out of line, something that rarely happens with either party. There’s usually at least ONE person who doesn’t like the outcome.

    This is going to put a lot of people who are known for digging in their heels into very precarious situations. Either they toe the line and have to accept some compromise because of Democrats in the Senate looking to filibuster. Or they alone hijack the Republican plans.

    And woe if someone dies, gets sick, or retires in office on their side, something that also happens at least once per year on either side.


  • Yeah. We don’t have anything in place for this kind of thing, so we had to rely exclusively on things we use for corporate litigation and what have you. The whole impeachment, that’s about it as for what our founders created to protect us and if Congress doesn’t exercise that power, well this is what happens. That whole argument way back “the courts will settle this” from the Senate that gave him a pass, that was the Senate knowing they failed and trying to pass the blame elsewhere.

    Trump got away with everything because the actual few protections we have, the people entrusted to use those powers lacked the spine to actually use that power. Cowardice is how we got here. A short but important line of defense was entrusted to weak minded people and so they failed at every step of the way.

    Perhaps we will one day fix these shortcomings. Maybe. But this shows that if we give power to weak individuals that will put wealth, power, and their own interests over the rule of law, then we don’t have a country. The Constitution is only a sheet of paper if we do nothing to enforce it.





  • Worse yet, Sen. Lee’s recent pitch is “get rid of the FED and then… well we’ll just figure it out after that.”

    Like literally, the main person behind this has zero clue on what they would do after getting rid of the FED. So not only would they in a single sweep up end the entire US dollar and all the global markets that have built around it. They have absolutely zero plan for what comes next.

    Like you could not pitch a “let’s fuck everything for the foreseeable future” plan any more than Senator Lee’s current idea of how to “fix” things. But I mean dude clerked for Alito in the third circuit, so I mean, shit doesn’t fall far from the asshole.



  • WHAAAAATTT?!

    Rubio? Dang. That’s a choice. There’s Romney, Paul, Barrasso, and Cruz that are some heavy hitters on the Committee on Foreign Relations and he went with Rubio? I mean shit, Rand Paul is who I would think would slide the best into Trump’s Sec. of State. There’s likely no one for Sec. of State that’s on Foreign Rel. that’s been more meticulous about the southern border that him. Additionally, the man is an easy pick for if you wanted to have someone sign a giant check from the US Treasury to Israel in the amount of ALL dollars.

    Rubio is a bit more slow paced. Don’t get me wrong, he wants a wall just as much, but he’d likely slow walk it to allow it to gain heavy media traction. Paul would just be like “Give me some fucking bricks”.

    is viewed by State Department officials as unlikely to overly politicize the role

    That is a massive understatement there.

    All I have to say is color me surprised by the choice. I mean, obviously Trump is going to tell Romney to eat shit, but shit if Foreign Rel. is where Trump was going for Sec. of State, I would have surely thought Paul would be a a perfect fit to Trump’s mannerisms.