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4 days agoShort answer: yes, maybe not $30/dozen and maybe not instantly but probably quickly.
Mechanized farming requires mechanized parts and transportation, even if domestic supply lines exist, the global market supply contributes to price. If that global market is heavily resricted through tariffs, price increases will propagate throughout the system.
The sudden and massive tariffs like trump has suggested (60% on all chinese goods, and 10% on all import goods) could be enough to spur a general global economic collapse. That is a huge amount of extra friction on a system tuned to extract maximum profit rather than be resilient, and we saw with the covid supply shocks how a string of comparatively local and sporadic events were able to wreck havoc.
A tariff on steel and aluminum will have much farther reaching consequences than guns. A specific tariff on smokeless powder is pretty unlikely, though maybe could be part of trying to ramp up domestic production. The US military is trying to make that happen, but that’s kind of the opposite of what you want.