I suppose that’s true, but regardless I can’t help but feel that further offensives into Ukraine aren’t likely. My understanding is that Russia was able to pull off the annexation due to support from the annexed oblasts. Would they have that same advantage closer to Kiev? It doesn’t seem like it, at least to me.

I suppose the Russians might be planning on regime change, but if that’s the case, I don’t know what’s taking so long. If I were Putin, I would want to press the advantage after the failed counteroffensive. I suspect he isn’t because such a move would prolong the war by several years, and wouldn’t that be extremely unpopular? Not to mention a potential strategic blunder. What if it went badly?

I don’t have insight into what Putin is thinking, that’s just my read on the situation.