I’m not really looking at the situation from these minor perspectives like ai, the reality of Chinese demographics is enough to show that there’s a certain decline looming around China and this presents a current best opportunity for China to achieve its outward facing goals as a decline in growth will limit its future capabilities to achieve those goals
You say this as if the whole world’s population isn’t projected to peak at 11 billion then stagnate (even africa, the current fastest grower). Like, I don’t get this obsession with focusing on Chinese birthrates.
It is a very weird obsession, especially since we know what birth rates look like in Europe, Japan, South Korea, etc. Basically all developed countries. Even the US would be having problems if it wasn’t compensating with immigration.
It’s also indicative of an inability to think outside of the capitalist paradigm of infinite growth. Just because capitalism is in trouble once growth stops doesn’t mean that socialism works the same way.
And ultimately it is a form of projection, as it is Europe and the US that have much worse social contradictions festering at the moment for which there is no obvious solution within their current system.
My prediction is that, as with all of the “China will collapse” predictions that have been made for the past 30+ years, this one too will turn out to be a nothing-burger. The Chinese government will figure out ways to deal with the changing demographic realities that come with being a highly developed country and that will be that.
Automation will play a big part in the transition, as increasing the productivity of each individual worker means one worker can sustain more people. Where in capitalism automation only exacerbates the social problems by putting people out of a job, socialism can turn automation into a social boon by allowing people to work less and have more free time for things such as a family.
If US AI just lost $1 trillion in market cap after the release of a model in China that cost $5 million to make, and uses 30% less resources to run, what does he that say about the US AI market?
As others have pointed out, birthrates in all industrialized nations go down when women are given the opportunity to participate in the labor market equally. Even in countries with exceptional socialized family support, those supports do not increase birth rates.
the reality of Chinese demographics is enough to show that there’s a certain decline looming around China
In the process of industrialization, the development of personal awareness, the pursuit of a high-quality life and women’s increased participation in the economy have always led to a decline in fertility rates. China isn’t immune to this. China’s demographic situation is a natural outcome driven by the nation’s economic and social development. This phenomenon is quite common. There is no need to exaggerate its influence.
I’m not really looking at the situation from these minor perspectives like ai, the reality of Chinese demographics is enough to show that there’s a certain decline looming around China and this presents a current best opportunity for China to achieve its outward facing goals as a decline in growth will limit its future capabilities to achieve those goals
You say this as if the whole world’s population isn’t projected to peak at 11 billion then stagnate (even africa, the current fastest grower). Like, I don’t get this obsession with focusing on Chinese birthrates.
It is a very weird obsession, especially since we know what birth rates look like in Europe, Japan, South Korea, etc. Basically all developed countries. Even the US would be having problems if it wasn’t compensating with immigration.
It’s also indicative of an inability to think outside of the capitalist paradigm of infinite growth. Just because capitalism is in trouble once growth stops doesn’t mean that socialism works the same way.
And ultimately it is a form of projection, as it is Europe and the US that have much worse social contradictions festering at the moment for which there is no obvious solution within their current system.
My prediction is that, as with all of the “China will collapse” predictions that have been made for the past 30+ years, this one too will turn out to be a nothing-burger. The Chinese government will figure out ways to deal with the changing demographic realities that come with being a highly developed country and that will be that.
Automation will play a big part in the transition, as increasing the productivity of each individual worker means one worker can sustain more people. Where in capitalism automation only exacerbates the social problems by putting people out of a job, socialism can turn automation into a social boon by allowing people to work less and have more free time for things such as a family.
If US AI just lost $1 trillion in market cap after the release of a model in China that cost $5 million to make, and uses 30% less resources to run, what does he that say about the US AI market?
As others have pointed out, birthrates in all industrialized nations go down when women are given the opportunity to participate in the labor market equally. Even in countries with exceptional socialized family support, those supports do not increase birth rates.
China is a leader in automaton and uses it’s 5 year plans to ensure they keep automaton up while demographics go down.
Declining birth rates are not sign of decline, if that were true then America is in decline, along with most other industrial nations.
In the process of industrialization, the development of personal awareness, the pursuit of a high-quality life and women’s increased participation in the economy have always led to a decline in fertility rates. China isn’t immune to this. China’s demographic situation is a natural outcome driven by the nation’s economic and social development. This phenomenon is quite common. There is no need to exaggerate its influence.