Three leading climate scientists have combined insights from 10 global climate models and, with the help of artificial intelligence (AI), conclude that regional warming thresholds are likely to be reached faster than previously estimated.
Mmmm faster then expected huh ?
in case you were worried this is alarmist,
The pattern from 2015 elnino saw no temperature since being below 2015 (or 2014 for that matter), with 2016 a recrod that stood until 2023. 2023 el nino, reached 1.5C, and 2024 is likely to set a new record. If the 2015/2016 pattern holds, 2030 or 2031 will be when we officially declare that “last 10 years have averaged over 1.5C” which is the IPCC threshold for 1.5.
Planet will not be getting cooler, or have less CO2 emissions. Even if energy transition accelerates, and China/India/EU have some hope to helping, forest fires and permafrost thaw won’t stop at current temperature levels. War on Russia or Ukraine depending on your perspective is massive source of emissions, and eliminates any cooperation from Russia on climate, and more war is in the interest of oil producers, with little hope for less war. Sanctions/tariffs and counter sanctions is/will affect energy transition. Global recession is unlikely to boost forest management/fire fighting resources.
OP’s targets for 1.5C being 9 years behind actual likely thresholds with no near term catalysts for annual co2 emissions even dropping to below 2ppm per year.
The 3C forecasts do have some time to mitigate, however.