Summary
The Republican Party is poised to hold a historically narrow House majority, with current projections showing 220 GOP seats to Democrats’ 215.
This would be the smallest majority since the Hoover administration.
Resignations by three Republican representatives, including Matt Gaetz, could further shrink the margin to 217–215, allowing a single defector to block legislation.
The tight results undermine Republican claims of a 2024 electoral landslide, as Donald Trump’s popular-vote margin over Kamala Harris has narrowed significantly since election night.
It’s 3 or 4 convictions from flipping the House, in the unlikely event that the Dems can maintain solidarity.