Topline
The United States is currently on course for sustained competition with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in which both sides recognize the dangers of a potential great-power conflict — something both sides say they hope to avoid. As the United States shifts from a strategy of engagement toward a strategy of confrontation and competition with the PRC, it is even more important to sustain the meaningful bilateral diplomacy and respect for long-standing policies and principles that have prevented the relationship from gravitating toward conflict for the past half century. This will require developing more, not less, diplomatic engagement and informal communication between defense communities to better understand and prevent the potential triggers for direct conflict between the world’s two most powerful countries. The most significant and dangerous such trigger is the issue of Taiwan and the potential mismanagement of cross-Strait relations.
Once again, this ball is entirely within China’s court. If they don’t invade Taiwan, then there won’t be a war. If they do invade Taiwan, then there’s gonna be a fucking war.