• assaultpotato@sh.itjust.works
    104·
    2 days ago

    And so with the leftist Arabic vote being such a tiny % of the overall voter base, it would be really smart to pivot to single-issue to maybe win some of that 0.46%, right?

    • Keeponstalin@lemmy.world
      21·
      13 hours ago

      It was the Harris campaign that made the decision to not break from Biden on Israel, at the cost of at least a net +6 points gain. Those votes were entirely up for grabs. Not enough to win the general election majority, but certainly enough to win swing states. That’s the fault of the campaign’s calculations to ignore those voters, take them for granted, and instead run to the right with having the most lethal Military and unwaivering support for Israel a year into this genocide. That single policy change would have secured her the swing states needed to win the election with the electoral college. Winning the popular vote would have needed more progressive policies that address and resolve the material needs of the general public.

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      Our first matchup tested a Democrat and a Republican who “both agree with Israel’s current approach to the conflict in Gaza”. In this case, the generic candidates tied 44–44. The second matchup saw the same Republican facing a Democrat supporting “an immediate ceasefire and a halt of military aid and arms sales to Israel”. Interestingly, the Democrat led 49–43, with Independents and 2020 non-voters driving the bulk of this shift.

      Quotes

      In Pennsylvania, 34% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if the nominee vowed to withhold weapons to Israel, compared to 7% who said they would be less likely. The rest said it would make no difference. In Arizona, 35% said they’d be more likely, while 5% would be less likely. And in Georgia, 39% said they’d be more likely, also compared to 5% who would be less likely.

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      Majorities of Democrats (67%) and Independents (55%) believe the US should either end support for Israel’s war effort or make that support conditional on a ceasefire. Only 8% of Democrats but 42% of Republicans think the US must support Israel unconditionally.

      Republicans and Independents most often point to immigration as one of Biden’s top foreign policy failures. Democrats most often select the US response to the war in Gaza.

      • assaultpotato@sh.itjust.works
        112·
        2 days ago

        I disabled replies because you said /conversation and I thought it was done. I didn’t bait you.

        I think we agree on most things. I disagree that pivoting left on Palestine would have net improved voter turnout for Harris. I do agree that the Dems have failed to appeal to undecideds and non-voters. I do agree some people in the Democratic party will be blaming third-party voters, despite them being of little consequence this election. Criticizing Hispanics for voting Trump based on vague notions of “the economy” is fair game, though, along with criticizing white people who thought Biden was still running, etc.

        Re: your other post, if your post is so widely misinterpreted that you have to comment a clarification, maybe your communication isn’t clear.

        You’re clearly not dumb, but not everyone who replies is committing a logical fallacy.

        • spujb@lemmy.cafeOPEnglish
          57·
          2 days ago

          Waiting until the last minute to link the post you were referencing (which, to be fair, most people didn’t need me to explain) was a bit confusing, so I’ll admit that felt like bad form. But no hard feelings.

          It seems like we’re on the same page about most things, and I agree with all the points you listed.

          I’ll also apologize for the immediate defensiveness—people on this site can be really mean, and shove words into my mouth without evidence, and after a while, it starts to get to you. You are one in a million for actually having a source for your opinion on me (which I just wish you had linked earlier 😛).

      • assaultpotato@sh.itjust.works
        132·
        2 days ago

        It’s only a strawman if you haven’t posted exactly that argument before. So, which is it, though? Did the Dems lose because they failed to pivot left on Palestine to capture the leftist Arabic vote, or are leftist Arabs an inconsequentially small voter base?

        Answer: it’s the second one! White people handed this country to Trump, and trying to court Arabs with Palestine wouldn’t have increased Harris’ results.

          • assaultpotato@sh.itjust.works
            102·
            2 days ago

            Again, not a false dilemma if you’ve previously posted that pivoting left for Arabic votes on Palestine would put the Democrats in power.

            I agree that the Dems abandoned appealing to voters on economic grounds, which is what actually lost them the election. But I’m not addressing any arguments in that - I’m commenting on your previous commentary on Dems not pivoting left on Palestine. So hey, fallacy fallacy yourself if you want.