There were a lot of garage firms this cycle. Flooding the averages with a particular bias.
My gut feeling is also that the larger, more credible polling outfits are herding a bit and are afraid of under sampling the same voters they under sampled the last 2 elections. Though this bit remains to be seen, as I said it’s more a feeling than anything.
Edit: also to add on to my herding note. I find it odd that every projection system out there says it’s close but also makes a point to hedge further and say that a landslide either way is plausible. It just adds to my feeling of herding and general ass covering.
Edit 2: just saw the Seltzer Iowa Poll. This post is about 5 hours old at time of edit. Maybe gut was onto something
Yeah to be honest if you’re in the business of saying that it’s a) a really close race and b) could be a landslide to either side, why even bother making any comment or prediction at all lol what a waste of space
There were a lot of garage firms this cycle. Flooding the averages with a particular bias.
My gut feeling is also that the larger, more credible polling outfits are herding a bit and are afraid of under sampling the same voters they under sampled the last 2 elections. Though this bit remains to be seen, as I said it’s more a feeling than anything.
Edit: also to add on to my herding note. I find it odd that every projection system out there says it’s close but also makes a point to hedge further and say that a landslide either way is plausible. It just adds to my feeling of herding and general ass covering.
Edit 2: just saw the Seltzer Iowa Poll. This post is about 5 hours old at time of edit. Maybe gut was onto something
Yeah to be honest if you’re in the business of saying that it’s a) a really close race and b) could be a landslide to either side, why even bother making any comment or prediction at all lol what a waste of space
Then Ann Seltzer entered the chat. My goodness. I don’t know if she just had an outlier or not. But you cannot accuse her of herding with that one