While still cautious, advisers and allies believe that casting Donald Trump as a fascist is working, and that their expansive ground game and appeals on abortion rights may carry the day.
As the presidential contest enters the final sprint, campaign aides and allies close to Vice President Kamala Harris are growing cautiously optimistic about her chances of victory, saying the race is shifting in her favor.
Top Democratic strategists are increasingly hopeful that the campaign’s attempts to cast former President Donald J. Trump as a fascist — paired with an expansive battleground-state operation and strength among female voters still energized by the end of federal abortion rights — will carry Ms. Harris to a narrow triumph. Even some close to Mr. Trump worry that the push to label him a budding dictator who has praised Hitler could move small but potentially meaningful numbers of persuadable voters.
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This article is based on interviews with more than two dozen political strategists, campaign aides, pollsters and others close to the two campaigns and candidates, many of whom insisted on anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
In general, people are more likely to vote when they perceive their side as being in the lead or more popular. It’s why there’s a long history of partisan polling, and why campaigns are eager to be seen as having momentum. It’s much better for them to say they are cautiously optimistic than it would be to say nothing and leave their supporters feeling demoralized by all the people saying the opposite.
That’s kind of a circular hypothesis. People perceiving their side having more support could lead to them showing up and their side actually winning, or their side could have already had more support and been on the way to victory and people were simply able to observe reality.
You don’t want to say “we’re fucked”, but you also don’t want to portray that everything’s going great so let’s focus on how we’re going to decorate the victory party. There’s a reason donation emails don’t highlight the polls where they’re up by 5 and instead find news that looks like effort is needed. Complacent people stop donating, stop volunteering, and may possibly think they don’t need to go through the hassle of standing in a long line to vote. People need to think it’s winnable, not that it’s won and ‘offficials within the Harris campaign … believe she remains in a solid position in the Northern “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin’ sounds concerningly safe for states that absolutely shouldn’t have any smidgen of complacency.
I think this election is likely to be so close that a lot of the common sense logic goes out the window. Who knows what will motivate the 10,000 or so voters who will make the difference in the swing states that decide the election?
J Lo and Bad Bunny?
At least I hope they helped. The Latino vote is stubbornly in the middle right now. Encouraging their vote looks like it’d help…
Ah, so voting really is a popularity contest. Sadly, bigotry seems to be at least somewhat popular.
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