Protests across Turkey against a US Navy port visit and continuing US military presence in the country have served as the most visible battleground in this new “Cold War”, with the unrest masking Turkey’s application to join BRICS and Beijing’s efforts for a new world order.
The problem they have is that they have nowhere to expand to, and from US perspective there is nothing more that can be achieved there going forward. The US simply doesn’t have the resources to take on Iran, China, and Russia all at the same time, so they’re going to have to pick their battles going forward. The US sees China as the primary adversary, and I expect that Asia will be where US focus will increasingly shift. This necessarily means having to cut Europe loose. The other side of this is what we’re seeing happening in France and Germany right now where liberal centre is collapsing. I fully expect that nationalist parties will take power within a few years, and these parties are hostile to NATO.
This has been the case for almost two decades now, yet they are stuck in the Middle East and cannot leave. The US is religiously tied to Israel, and is at a stage where the entire decisionmaker class genuinely believe that what’s good for Israel is good for the US.
Good for China, bad for the Middle East. But oh well, no one can choose their fate, we [Middle Easterners] certainly didn’t choose to be cursed with Israel.
Indeed, I imagine oil is also a big factor in that equation.
There’s trillions yet to be funneled to the MIC. I don’t know why they’d stop just because they lost another war. The US losing wars is as normal as the sun rising.
I think there are physical limits on US power, and we’re seeing these limits being reached now. US is simply incapable of producing weapons and ammunition at the rate they’re being used in Ukraine. US has now run through much of the existing stocks, and it’s operating on very thin margins. I’m sure US will continue to try milk Europe, but NATO isn’t strictly necessary for that. Without NATO, Europe is still largely dependent on US, but there won’t be a commitment from US. You can think of it the same way NATO is using Ukraine right now, where they provide support, but won’t engage Russia directly on Ukraine’s behalf. Europe will find itself in the same position in the near future.