There is still a professional core of the AFU left, but the reason we’re seeing collapse accelerating is precisely because a lot of the motivated soldiers have been attrited out over the past two years. It’s also important to keep in mind that the strongholds that AFU holds have been prepared for many years. Russian strategy has been to attack all across the front which is forcing Ukraine to run their limited reserve to plug the gaps. Since there aren’t enough troops to do that, we’re seeing places like Avdievka fall when troops are pulled back to plug gaps elsewhere. I expect this process will continue for the next few months, but once these positions are lost there’s nowhere for Ukraine to fall back to, and at that point the collapse will likely accelerate.
There is still a professional core of the AFU left, but the reason we’re seeing collapse accelerating is precisely because a lot of the motivated soldiers have been attrited out over the past two years. It’s also important to keep in mind that the strongholds that AFU holds have been prepared for many years. Russian strategy has been to attack all across the front which is forcing Ukraine to run their limited reserve to plug the gaps. Since there aren’t enough troops to do that, we’re seeing places like Avdievka fall when troops are pulled back to plug gaps elsewhere. I expect this process will continue for the next few months, but once these positions are lost there’s nowhere for Ukraine to fall back to, and at that point the collapse will likely accelerate.