Of limited interest, I’m sure, but I spent a bit of time working all this out, and wanted to post it before Scotland go 2 down after 5 minutes tomorrow and render it all moot…

So.

If Scotland lose to Hungary, we’re out. No ifs, buts, or maybes.

If we draw then we need at least 2 out of 3 scenarios to happen in order to sneak through:

• Spain beat Albania AND Italy beat Croatia
• Turkey beat Czechia AND Portugal beat Georgia
• Denmark beat Georgia AND England beat Slovenia by 5 or more (I think)

If Scotland win against Hungary then any 2 (or more) of these scenarios gets us through

• Spain avoid defeat to Albania (Scotland would finish better than Albania and also better than one of Croatia or Italy, regardless of their result)

• Netherlands beat Austria (Scotland would be ahead of both Austria and Poland)

• England avoid defeat to Slovenia (Scotland would be ahead of Slovenia and also at least one of Denmark or Serbia).

• There’s also the possibility that Slovenia hammer England (Scotland could finish better than England on goal difference and also would be ahead of at least one of Denmark or Serbia)

• Portugal avoid defeat to Georgia (Scotland would be ahead of Georgia and also ahead of one of Turkey or Czechia)

• Even if Georgia did win, we could beat them on GD, but we’d have to thrash Hungary, so not likely.

• No draws on match day 3 in group E. Doesn’t matter who wins, as long as two teams do.

• Or, if there are 1 or 2 draws in group E then it comes down to goal difference, so we would have to hammer Hungary, see above.

And yes, I made a spreadsheet to work all this out… :-)