Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/10013170
The war in Ukraine is “existential for our Europe and for France”, Mr Macron said in the interview on France 2 and TF1.
“Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Romanians and the Bulgarians could remain at peace for a second [in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine]?” he asked. “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility would be reduced to zero.”
I’d argue that nobody relied on the EU for defense in the first place. Prior to the war in Ukraine, Europe was not exactly known for getting militarily involved in conflicts or as a defensive ally, quite the opposite. See all the “strongly worded letter” jokes. I don’t think Taiwan is under any illusions about getting major military support from Europe, no European country (except Vatican) even recognizes it. The EU and Ukraine were never formally allied prior to the war, so if anything, the amount of support was/is larger than expected.
Noone relied on the EU for protection, because the EU was largely unaffected by wars in the past. However with the war in Ukraine, the EU is directly affected. And a war over Taiwan would affect the EU in a similar gravity. A war over Albania less so, but a NATO member and a (former) candidate to join the EU, Turkey, is likely to be directly involved in such a war. If the EU shows that it is unwilling to push back against aggression, even if the EU is directly affected, then the EU will lose a lot ofinfluence with other regional powers.