forecasting

forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

PostsComments

Lars Trieloff@toot.berlin · 13 days ago

https://asteriskmag.com/issues/08/the-death-and-life-of-prediction-markets-at-google via

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https://asteriskmag.com/issues/08/the-death-and-life-of-prediction-markets-at-google via

Lars Trieloff@toot.berlin · 13 days ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 13 days ago

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

www.astralcodexten.com

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Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

www.astralcodexten.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 13 days ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 13 days ago

The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google

asteriskmag.com

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The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google

asteriskmag.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 13 days ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 20 days ago

Mantic Monday: Judgment Day

www.astralcodexten.com

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Mantic Monday: Judgment Day

www.astralcodexten.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 20 days ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 21 days ago

The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’

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The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 21 days ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 21 days ago

5 Things on the Iowa Poll that Broke the Internet

news.polymarket.com

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5 Things on the Iowa Poll that Broke the Internet

news.polymarket.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 21 days ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 month ago

Samotsvety probabilities for potential precursors of existential risk

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Samotsvety probabilities for potential precursors of existential risk

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 month ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 month ago

Can AI Compete With Human Forecasters? It looks like not yet

tellingthefuture.substack.com

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Can AI Compete With Human Forecasters? It looks like not yet

tellingthefuture.substack.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 month ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

2024 Electoral Consequences

www.metaculus.com

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2024 Electoral Consequences

www.metaculus.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

Mantic Monday 9/16/24

www.astralcodexten.com

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Mantic Monday 9/16/24

www.astralcodexten.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

Coalition for Political Forecasting submitted 80 pages to CFTC arguing for event contracts

comments.cftc.gov

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Coalition for Political Forecasting submitted 80 pages to CFTC arguing for event contracts

comments.cftc.gov

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

The twists of the election in Venezuela

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The twists of the election in Venezuela

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

Kalshi wins lawsuit against CFTC

www.mikesblog.net

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Kalshi wins lawsuit against CFTC

www.mikesblog.net

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news

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Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

Forecasting is mostly vibes. So is expertise

nathanpmyoung.substack.com

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Forecasting is mostly vibes. So is expertise

nathanpmyoung.substack.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

You don’t need to worry about which distribution to use any more

riskacademy.blog

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You don’t need to worry about which distribution to use any more

riskacademy.blog

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

Student loan forecasts for England, Financial year 2023-24

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk

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Student loan forecasts for England, Financial year 2023-24

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) arm unveils forecast contracts

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Interactive Brokers (IBKR) arm unveils forecast contracts

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

Swift Centre’s UK General Election Forecasts

swiftcentre.substack.com

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Swift Centre’s UK General Election Forecasts

swiftcentre.substack.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

How the Economist's presidential prediction model works

www.economist.com

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How the Economist's presidential prediction model works

www.economist.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

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forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

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Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

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