I think it’s fair to understand G9 and Viv Ansanm, as well as BSAP/FREN (though I haven’t read much about them in recent months) and the general conflict in Haiti since 2021 as a form of Protracted People’s War.

G9 has sought alliances with other armed groups, even those who were previously “regressive”, on the ideal of a defence of the nation from foreign intervention. Segments of institutional army forces defect to support popular projects such as the water canal at the border. The “transitional” government has collapsed completely. Viv Ansanm controls most of the capital.

So long as the UN never allows an escalation of the deployment of “security” forces on Haitian territory (which both Russian and Chinese delegates harshly criticized on a recent session), I believe an independent Haiti is on the horizon.