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i think that is bad if the chinese government hasn’t already started doing this years ago.
Oh they have, one example is China aggressively redirecting trade towards the Global South, this is basically what BRI is all about. There’s also a push for dual circulation and tech independence that’s now bearing fruit. However, Russian experience is still valuable as it highlights what can be expected in practical terms once the trade war escalates.
i think that the global south is a dead end if the chinese can’t figure out how to make it profitable fast enough.
governments like the americans have centuries worth of tribal knowledge and the experience it takes to make the global south bend to it’s will and they will/are using that to grey rock chinese ambitions there and it’s working.
the only counter that the chinese have, imo, is to expend their financial might in making it happen anyways despite the costs incurred like byd is doing in mexico; but doing so imperils themselves further because the biggest and strongest asset to the american war chest is it’s de facto control over the world’s finances. so if the chinese pursue this avenue, they should expect to be outmaneuvered wo strong allies.
It sounds like you’re analyzing China as if it were just another capitalist state, but it’s not one. It doesn’t need—or even want—to (neo)colonize the Global South. It wants equal exchange with them, not unequal exchange. The Global South is now largely wise to the imperial core’s neocolonial debt traps (think IMF & World Bank), and they’re happy to engage with China’s non-predatory alternatives.
… they’re happy to engage with China’s non-predatory alternatives.
i believe that this is why they have a real chance of outlasting everyone; people are sick of american hegemony and it’s underhanded abusiveness.
whether or not china wants to be an imperial power itself is immaterial since the current hegemony of empires will & are doing everything in their power to assert control of china and cap its influence; they have enough leverage at their disposal to decimate china like they did in the past and their newest strategy includes the successful international ostracization levied against them to keep them away from the word economies that are both amenable to the goal of equal exchange and are able to help them achieve that goal. (eg mexico, brazil, vietnam, etc.)
they have enough leverage at their disposal to decimate china like they did in the past
I do not believe they have that leverage anymore. The Global North has largely deindustrialized itself, and it currently seems unable to escape the neoliberal hole it has dug for itself, and that will prevent re-industrialization. The US and Europe combined can’t even produce enough munitions for Ukraine’s needs right now. The US military is very large, but it is extraordinarily expensive, and it is very ineffective in proportion to cost. It produces very technologically sophisticated, expensive garbage, and their older, large platforms have been poorly maintained. The US has proven to itself in its own war games that it can’t reliably take on Iran, never mind China. Technology-wise, China has already surpassed the West in some areas, and that trajectory has a lot of momentum. China files more patents than the next nine countries combined. The Global North is also a minority of the world’s population by a long shot, and it holds a minority of the world’s natural resources. It is an empire in decline.
In the Global North’s attempts at “international” sanctions, it is ostracizing itself from the global majority. The Global South—Russia and China included—are ignoring those sanctions and doing its own thing. Even Global North countries are skirting their own sanctions and trading with Russia on the sly. A recent interview with Marxist economists Michael Hudson and Richard Wolff: A World Pushed to Resist: U.S. Policies and the Rise of Global Alliances
I do not believe they have that leverage anymore. The Global North has largely deindustrialized itself, and it currently seems unable to escape the neoliberal hole it has dug for itself, and that will prevent re-industrialization. The US and Europe combined can’t even produce enough munitions for Ukraine’s needs right now. The US military is very large, but it is extraordinarily expensive, and it is very ineffective in proportion to cost. It produces very technologically sophisticated, expensive garbage, and their older, large platforms have been poorly maintained. The US has proven to itself in its own war games that it can’t reliably take on Iran, never mind China. Technology-wise, China has already surpassed the West in some areas, and that trajectory has a lot of momentum. China files more patents than the next nine countries combined. The Global North is also a minority of the world’s population by a long shot, and it holds a minority of the world’s natural resources. It is an empire in decline.
the american war chest no longer relies on an industrial base and it’s military is a vestige of a time that hasn’t yet completely passed but has already started to as you pointed out.
to be clear, industrialization is absolutely necessary for a long run, but they have more than enough financial surplus to outlast the entire world without it long enough to maintain their control until an industrial based can be created from scratch and they tackle one problem at a time. the first priority is always to nip social & economical movements that challenge their financial position in the bud and in every way that they can and at every opportunity.
the combined western military might alone is still capable of decimating china; but it would be a mistake to go with such an old fashion heavy hand (at least for now) when you can user newer and more surgical weaponry like american dominance in technology. china is still dependent on western technology despite their own impressive technological prowess and progress in mitigating it as a threat to them; but like the american military, it’s MUCH bigger and deeper than anything china can realistically counter as evidenced by the russian contributor expulsions from the linux kernel maintainer’s group and TSMC refusing to service chinese chip makers.
In the Global North’s attempts at “international” sanctions, it is ostracizing itself from the global majority. The Global South—Russia and China included—are ignoring those sanctions and doing its own thing. Even Global North countries are skirting their own sanctions and trading with Russia on the sly.
the second biggest and strongest weapon my in country’s arsenal is social engineering and they’ve also successfully used it maintain narratives like china is being a bully in the international affairs and anyone speaks well of them in any light is automatically a “tankie”.
like defederation & bannings in the lemmyverse; the ostracizing people are shooting themselves in the foot, but it’s happening so slowly that it can only be seen from the lens of experience and that same experience also says that they will happily continue doing it against their boogeyman-of-the-month and no matter how detrimental it is to their own goals.
and also like in the lemmyverse; the ostracization leans into their leverage right now with key chess pieces like the linux kernel, tsmc, finances, and majority support (in lemmy’s case).
more surgical weaponry like american dominance in technology.
- WSJ a year ago: China and Russia Are Far Ahead of the U.S. in the Race for Hypersonic Missiles
- The Economist last week: In some areas of military strength, China has surpassed America
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china is still dependent on western technology
It goes both ways.
- American Security Project a year ago: Despite Sanctions, U.S. Defense Still Sources from China
- Forbes yesterday: America’s Carriers Rely on Chinese Chips, Our Depleted Munitions Too
