China’s military actions are a form of shock and awe. They are designed to unleash fear among the Taiwanese population and bully the island’s international supporters into inaction. China’s lawfare is a silent killer, attempting to slowly strangle Taiwan’s ability to function as an autonomous, self-governing entity. If the world’s democracies do not act to relieve the pressure on Taipei, it will soon be too late.
Paywalled: https://archive.md/AUYyy
When U.S. President Richard Nixon and U.S. National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger visited mainland China in 1972, Mao told them that he could wait a hundred years for a resolution of the Taiwan issue, kicking the question far down the road.
That bit is interesting. The US should be pushing back, stating that the “1972 Assurance” allows them to do so.
I wonder if one way to resolve this is to ask for international legal representation under “one country, two systems” prior to its full implementation. So Taiwan joins Interpol, the WHO, and so on under the basis of “one country, two systems” without actually agreeing to implement it domestically.
If Taiwan ever did become formally independent (say with a new constitution declaring a Republic of Taiwan, perhaps after the current generation of leaders in the PRC is replaced by a new one, who suddenly open up and reform), I can easily see those seats transitioning from, e.g. “Taiwan, China” to “Republic of Taiwan”.
Perhaps another compromise - in 2072 Taiwan and China form an accord to have Taiwan join China under “one country, two systems” but with a timeline spelled out. It goes forward to completion (to the start of the two systems phase) in around 300 years. In the meantime, China agrees to assist Taiwan in getting more direct international representation, immediately, along with renouncing the use of military force against Taiwan as long as the accord is not unilaterally broken. China wins as it gets to claim that it secured Taiwan back (even as it would remain an open question if China would still want it in 300 years), while Taiwan’s democracy and style of living are kept safe for a few more centuries (which gives plenty more time to work out a forever solution down the line).
In the lead-up to the U.N. vote, Chiang’s stubbornness led him to refuse proposals—including from Washington—to try to secure a separate U.N. seat for Taiwan. Had that attempt been successful, it would have put Taiwan on a much surer footing as the independent and democratic country it has, for all intents and purposes, become. After all, the two Koreas are both U.N. members, as were the two Germanys.
I didn’t know that this had been proposed. Had Chiang agreed to it, and the PRC rejected, I can see the resolution as being more likely to have failed (and the ROC keeps the permanent security council seat)… so back then they had more leverage. On the flip side, having two Germanies in the UN did not stop German reunification when it finally came about.
So things could have been very different if Chiang had been more foresighted.